t02436

MFR 06Z升熱帶擾動，看好登陸前命名。

ZCZC 838
WTIO30 FMEE 020631 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/1/20172018
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  1
2.A POSITION 2018/01/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 54.4 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL
FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/02 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2018/01/03 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/03 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/04 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/04 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/05 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/06 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0
NNNN

周子堯@FB

JTWC 20z評級Medium，機構看好發展

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5S 66.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 63.6E, APPROXIMATELY 589
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301445Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CENTRALLY
LOCATED FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. 94S REMAINS IN
AN AREA OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS)
ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
OVER THE NEXT 96HRS, BUT REMAIN MISALIGNED ON THE TIMING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Meow

已編擾動區1號，首報即上看60kt。

WTIO30 FMEE 291339 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/1/20172018
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER  1
2.A POSITION 2017/12/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 67.5 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL
FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/12/30 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
24H: 2017/12/30 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 64.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2017/12/31 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
48H: 2017/12/31 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/01 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/01 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/02 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/03 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

霧峰追風者

JTWC 23Z評級Low,機構看好發展

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.9S
68.1E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271654Z 89GHZ AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH STEADY CONSOLIDATION LIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

zjk369