霧峰追風者

JTWC 09Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.9S 127.8E, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND MODERATELY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH CONVECTION CENTRALIZED TO THE NORTHWEST. A 080441Z AMSR2 89GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTION SLIGHTLY BANDING INTO THE LLC AND WEAK
INFLOW IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 96S WILL
REMAIN ON LAND THROUGH TAU 42. BEYOND TAU 42, 96S QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATES OVER WATER INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH SYSTEM
BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA NEAR TAU 90.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

BoM 開始發報，預計出海後命名，巔峰暫時上望澳式C2。

霧峰追風者

BoM 7日已經升格熱帶低壓，編號"09U"。

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:02 pm WST on Sunday 7 January 2018
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 10 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough lies to the north of Western Australia, with a weak Tropical Low (09U) near 13.6S 128.6E at 2pm WST Sunday, off the northeast Kimberley coast.
The low is expected to move southwest across the north Kimberley coast on Monday, before moving over water off the northwest Kimberley coast on Tuesday. There is only a low chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone during Tuesday, but conditions are favourable for development and there is a high chance of it developing into a cyclone by later on Wednesday. There is a significant risk of this system affecting communities over the far western Kimberley and/or the Pilbara later in the week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Low
Wednesday:High