霧峰追風者

  熱帶低壓  
編號：04-20172018 ( 99 S )
名稱：無


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 01 月 14 日 21 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 01 月 15 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 01 月 26 日 02 時
登陸地點　　：莫三比克 楠普拉

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
法國氣象局 (MFR)：30 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：30 kts
海平面最低氣壓：999 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
99S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.14.2S.42.6E

霧峰追風者

JTWC 14Z取消評

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.27S 53.25E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

霧峰追風者

JTWC 23Z評級提升"Medium"，中心風速達到30kts。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.9S 50.3E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221754Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATE FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, A 221852Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 25-30 KNOT WIND
CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS OBSERVED ON THE WESTERN SIDE
COMPRESSED AGAINST THE TERRAIN. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSET BY 27-29 DEGREE SST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING WITHIN 1-2
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

穿越馬達加斯加，中心出海，JTWC 21Z再次評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
19.6S 47.6E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
FLARING CONVECTION DIRECTLY ABOVE A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS
99S MOVES OUT OVER OPEN WATER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
OFF THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR ARE MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) AND
DECREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER THIS IS OFFSET BY DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW AND THAT 99S IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF LOW (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR LIGHT
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AS 99S MOVES EASTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

周子堯@FB

登陸馬達加斯加，JTWC 05z取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.2S 43.4E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

霧峰追風者

路徑峰迴路轉，將回到莫三比克海峽，JTWC 21Z再次評級Low，後期趨向馬達加斯加。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.4S 39.5E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY AND A 191926Z
89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ABOVE AN
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT WHEN 99S REACHES OPEN WATER. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS
MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION AS 99S TRACKS BACK OVER WATER, BUT ARE SPLIT
ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF 99S DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER
MADAGASCAR IN THE SHORT TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

中心登陸，無緣命名。


JTWC 01Z取消評級。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INV 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.0S 40.7E, IS OVER LAND AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

霧峰追風者

看起來要登陸了，18Z應該是最後希望..