(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.2S 42.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 41.7E, APPROXIMATELY 400
NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY DEVELOP
99S AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
** WTIO22 FMEE 150621 ***
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 41.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REACHING 25 KT REACHING LOCALLY 30 KT OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UP TO 50 NM FROM THE CENTER
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/15 AT 18 UTC:
15.0 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 06 UTC:
14.9 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS=
