周子堯@FB

JTWC 06z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N
155.9E, APPROXIMATELY 914 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED FLARING
CONVECTION AND BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING. A 060440Z SSMI 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION AND NO LOWER LEVEL
STRUCTURE IS INDICATED. A 052223Z ASCAT PASS RETURNED MOSTLY 10 KNOT
WINDS, WITH AN AREA OF 15 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK, WIDESPREAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE AREAS OF
FLARING CONVECTION AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. NAVGEM
AND GFS PREDICT 93W WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN IN THE
LATER TAUS, WHILE UKMET AND ECMWF MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION TO THE
PHILIPPINES BUT DO NOT INTENSIFY THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.