簽到天數: 1765 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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zjk369|2018-2-16 18:21
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热带气旋10S（十）警告＃01
发布于16 / 0900Z
TC警告文本
WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZFEB2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 121.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.6S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.9S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.1S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.2S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.0S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.7S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 121.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM WEST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION THAT IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OVER WATER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 160600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING AND THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 160143Z
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS 25 KNOT WINDS, BASED ON IMPROVING
CONVECTION AND THE PRESENCE OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR (10 KNOTS) ALONG
WITH VERY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TC 10S,
ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AND 80 KNOTS
BY TAU 48. TC 09P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND LITTLE MOVEMENT AS TC 10S BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER TAU 48 THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 10S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE INDICATING A NEARLY 100NM WIDE
SPREAD WHEN TC 10S MAKES LANDFALL. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND
170900Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 151400).//NNNN
卫星修复公告
TPXS10 PGTW 160856
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN)
B. 16/0830Z
C. 18.13S
D. 121.10E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT YIELD 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/0659Z 18.08S 121.60E SSMI
LOWE
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