周子堯@FB

報文先出來，JTWC升10S

160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 121.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM WEST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION THAT IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OVER WATER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 160600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING AND THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 160143Z
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS 25 KNOT WINDS, BASED ON IMPROVING
CONVECTION AND THE PRESENCE OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR (10 KNOTS) ALONG
WITH VERY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TC 10S,
ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AND 80 KNOTS
BY TAU 48. TC 09P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND LITTLE MOVEMENT AS TC 10S BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER TAU 48 THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 10S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE INDICATING A NEARLY 100NM WIDE
SPREAD WHEN TC 10S MAKES LANDFALL. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND
170900Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 151400).//

zjk369

WTXS21
发布于15 / 1400Z
TCFA文本
WTXS21 PGTW 151400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7S 125.0E TO 19.1S 119.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 124.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 128.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151113Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH RESURGENT
FLARING CONVECTION. THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON
THE COAST, DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS STILL OVER
LAND. STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND RADIAL OUTFLOW IN THE VICINITY OF
91S ARE FUELING THE DEEP CONVECTION. 91S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS, WHICH IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION FROM THE
LLCC. FAVORABLE WARM SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS) AND LOWER VWS AWAIT 91S
ONCE IT EMERGES OVER WATER TO THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT
91S WILL TRACK OVER WATER IN 18-24 HOURS AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161400Z.//NNNN

卫星修复公告
TPXS10 PGTW 151516
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SW OF DARWIN)
B. 15/1450Z
C. 17.10S
D. 123.80E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
  15/1113Z  16.82S  124.73E  MMHS
  15/1253Z  17.08S  124.37E  MMHS
  LOWE

霧峰追風者

BoM 升格熱帶低壓，編號17U，巔峰上望2級熱帶氣旋。

A tropical low (17U) was located near the west coast of the Northern Territory at 1pm WST Wednesday, about 220 kilometres north northeast of Kununurra and 240 kilometres southwest of Darwin. It is expected to move across the north Kimberley on Thursday before moving off the west Kimberley coast Thursday night or Friday morning. It is a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Friday night, when it should be located off the west Kimberley coast.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Low
Friday:High
Saturday:High

霧峰追風者

JTWC 17Z評級"Medium"

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 133.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY
54 NM SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131253Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH LARGE AREAS OF
FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP IN AS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DUE TO A NEARBY POINT SOURCE,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) JUST OFFSHORE.  
91S IS CURRENTLY CONSOLIDATING OVER LAND, HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE 91S WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. IT
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER 91S WILL TRACK OVERWATER, BUT RAPID
CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGHLY PROBABLE IF AND WHEN
IT DOES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.