TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 090136 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 977HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 165.5E AT
090000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS & IR/EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDUCED IN RADIAL VERTICAL EXTENT WITH CLOUD
TOP WARMING. SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER
MEAN. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP
TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND
29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER WITH LG SURROUND, YIELDS
DT=4.5. PT=4.5 AND MET=3.5. FT BASED ON MET. CI HELD HIGH DUE TO
WEAKENING. THUS YIELDING T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 19.1S 166.3E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 20.8S 167.8E MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 23.2S 169.6E MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 25.9S 171.1E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HOLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
090800 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 072019 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 954HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S
166.2E AT 071800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 6
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 90 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS
IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH EYE DISCERNIBLE IN IR IMAGERY.
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE IN BLACK SURROUND
[NO EYE ADJ], YIELDS DT=5.5. PT=5.5 AND MET=5.0. THUS YIELDING
T5.5/5.5/1.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 17.4S 165.6E MOV SW AT 04 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 18.1S 165.7E MOV WSW AT 04 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 19.2S 166.5E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 105
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 20.9S 167.9E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HOLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
080200 UTC.
H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN
B FOR A DT=5.5 INCLUDING A 0.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=4.0. PT=4.5. FT IS
BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING T-NUMBER TO CHANGE OF 2.0 OVER 18 HRS.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 062018 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 168.4E AT
061800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION
HAS IMPROVED AS PRIMARY BAND WRAPS ON TO LLCC IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.8 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.5.
PT AND MET AGREE. THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 16.5S 167.3E MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 17.0S 166.4E MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 17.5S 166.1E MOV WSW AT 04 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 18.2S 166.4E MOV WSW AT 03 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 070200 UTC.