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12P.Hola 環流袖珍 巔峰短暫 加速南下轉化溫氣

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2018-3-3 16:27 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-3-27 14:43 編輯

  四級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:09 F ( 12 P )
名稱:Hola
Hola 2018-03-08 0231Z.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2018 03 03 14
JTWC升格日期:2018 03 06 20
命名日期  :2018 03 06 21
撤編日期  :2018 03 00 00
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速:
斐濟氣象局 (FMS):90 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):100 kts ( Cat.3 )
海平面最低氣壓:954 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
1920px-Hola_2018_track.png
  擾動編號資料  
97P-INVEST-15kts-1010mb-14.3S-174.3E

20180303.0750.himawari-8.ir.97P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.14.3S.174.3E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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霧峰追風者|2018-3-9 15:36 | 顯示全部樓層
強度降低至二級熱帶氣旋,沒有預期的高強度..
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 090136 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 977HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 165.5E AT
090000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS & IR/EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 60 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDUCED IN RADIAL VERTICAL EXTENT WITH CLOUD
TOP WARMING. SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER
MEAN. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP
TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND
29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER WITH LG SURROUND, YIELDS
DT=4.5. PT=4.5 AND MET=3.5. FT BASED ON MET. CI HELD HIGH DUE TO
WEAKENING. THUS YIELDING T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS.  


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 19.1S 166.3E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 20.8S 167.8E MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 23.2S 169.6E MOV SE  AT 11 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 25.9S 171.1E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HOLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
090800 UTC.

65643 (1).gif 20180309.0700.himawari-8.ir.12P.HOLA.80kts.963mb.18.4S.165.5E.100pc.jpg rbtop-animated.gif

點評

強度曇花一現,巔峰極短,將繼續減弱.  發表於 2018-3-9 22:44
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Meow|2018-3-8 22:02 | 顯示全部樓層

3月8日新喀里多尼亞以北強烈熱帶氣旋吼啦

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蜜露|2018-3-8 16:09 | 顯示全部樓層


胡拉氣旋開眼後是屬於針眼模式 . 然而JTWC還只是個Cat.2

2018SH12_4KMSRBDC_201803080230.jpg


20180307.1925.f17.91pct91h91v.12P.HOLA.90kts.962mb.16.9S.166.2E.090pc.jpg


算是6小時前的底層
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霧峰追風者|2018-3-8 04:26 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-3-8 06:55 編輯

FMS 強度直升四級熱帶氣旋,還有再增強空間,上看澳式C5。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 072019 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 954HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S
166.2E AT 071800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 6
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 90 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS
IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH EYE DISCERNIBLE IN IR IMAGERY.
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE IN BLACK SURROUND
[NO EYE ADJ], YIELDS DT=5.5. PT=5.5 AND MET=5.0. THUS YIELDING
T5.5/5.5/1.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 17.4S 165.6E MOV SW  AT 04 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 18.1S 165.7E MOV WSW AT 04 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 19.2S 166.5E MOV  S  AT 04 KT WITH 105
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 20.9S 167.9E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HOLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
080200 UTC.


65643.gif Screenshot_2018-03-08-04-20-48_com.android.chrome_1520454067925.jpg bd_lalo-animated.gif

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霧峰追風者|2018-3-8 03:14 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-3-8 06:56 編輯

分析到5.0,JTWC 18Z強度升二級颶風,風眼開啟。
TXPS22 KNES 071827
TCSWSP

A.  12P (HOLA)

B.  07/1730Z

C.  16.9S

D.  166.2E

E.  ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F.  T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN
B FOR A DT=5.5 INCLUDING A 0.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=4.0. PT=4.5. FT IS
BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING T-NUMBER TO CHANGE OF 2.0 OVER 18 HRS.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

NIL
...LEE

20180307.1840.himawari-8.ircolor.12P.HOLA.90kts.962mb.16.9S.166.2E.100pc.jpg sh122018.20180307185556.gif rbtop_lalo-animated.gif

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蜜露|2018-3-7 10:55 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 蜜露 於 2018-3-7 11:13 編輯


FMS看上澳式Cat.3   JTWC看上Cat.4

可能是今年南太平洋比較強的旋風.  過去這種向下路徑在南太猛貨是日常的.

前一個Dumazile , 數值很高是個猛爆, 888hPa  結果底層半圈一直是破的.

有時後GFS只是參考而已. 雖然有時後有如預期 , 但很多都有超出預期的弱或強的.

65660.gif


人算不如天算、人定究不能勝天。

2018SH12_OHCNFCST_201803061800.GIF


gfs_pres_wind_swpac_15.png


20180306.2136.gpm.89pct89h89v.12P.HOLA.45kts.993mb.16.1S.168.4E.050pc.jpg


有兩天左右的環境可以發展 , 底層發展也很快, 將進入萬那杜的馬勒庫拉島附近.

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霧峰追風者|2018-3-7 04:30 | 顯示全部樓層
增強比預期快,強度升二級熱帶氣旋。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 062018 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 168.4E AT
061800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.   

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION
HAS IMPROVED AS PRIMARY BAND WRAPS ON TO LLCC IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.8 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.5.
PT AND MET AGREE. THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 16.5S 167.3E MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 17.0S 166.4E MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 17.5S 166.1E MOV WSW AT 04 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 18.2S 166.4E MOV WSW AT 03 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 070200 UTC.
65660.gif 20180306.1910.himawari-8.ir.12P.HOLA.40kts.995mb.16.1S.168.4E.100pc.jpg avn-animated.gif


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