霧峰追風者

JTWC 09Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.3S 174.3E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030725Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING, UNORGANIZED CONVECTION ABOVE A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE,
WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE LLC. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 97P
REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 60. IN
ADDITION MODELS PREDICT A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHWEST IN THE MID TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

FMS 編號"09F"

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 030924 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD09F CENTRE [1007HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.5S
AND 174.2E AT 030600UTC. TD09F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI 8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC IN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
700HPA. SYSTEM LIES ALONG AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND INITIALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.