開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

14S.Eliakim 逐漸南下 轉變溫氣

簽到天數: 691 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2018-3-7 06:21 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2018-3-19 20:59 編輯

  中度熱帶風暴  
編號:07-20172018 ( 14 S )
名稱:Eliakim

  基本資料     
擾動編號日期:2018 03 07 06
命名日期  :2018 03 15 14
撤編日期  :2018 00 00 00
登陸地點  :馬達加斯加

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) :55 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):55 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓:980 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料   
99S.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-11.0S-69.0E

20180306.2130.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.99SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-110S-690E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2018擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 392 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-3-9 23:28 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 10Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.6S 69.3E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FORMATIVE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO WESTWARD OUTFLOW, THE BENEFITS OF WHICH ARE
OFFSET BY STRONG (25-30 KNOT) THOUGH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY ARE WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A
TC OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BUT
VARY WILDLY ON FORECAST SOLUTIONS. THE JGSM MAINTAINS A SINGLE,
SLOWLY STRENGTHENING STORM ON A WESTWARD TRACK, WHILE GFS, UKMO,
NAVGEM, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW TWO SEPARATE STORMS TRACKING AWAY FROM
EACH OTHER TO THE WEST AND EAST. THESE FOUR MODELS DIFFER ON EACH
STORMS RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

79_104649_17b50914a3c1655.jpg

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1543 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

zjk369|2018-3-13 01:41 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 17Z評級MEDIUM
abpwsair 201803121700.jpg

點評

補報文,JTWC 17Z評級提升至Medium,趨向馬達加斯加東岸。 [attachimg]77121[/attachimg]  詳情 回復 發表於 2018-3-13 02:09
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 392 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-3-13 02:09 | 顯示全部樓層

補報文,JTWC 17Z評級提升至Medium,趨向馬達加斯加東岸。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 75.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 55.6E, APPROXIMATELY 700
NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION ABOVE A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENABLING
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT, ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE
MARGINAL (15-20 KNOTS) FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY PREDICT 99S WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AT THE 48 HOUR MARK AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

20180312.1730.msg-4.ir.99S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.12.2S.56.9E.100pc.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1543 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

zjk369|2018-3-14 11:29 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 zjk369 於 2018-3-14 12:09 編輯

JTWC 0230Z發佈TCFAWTXS21 PGTW 140300MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S 56.2E TO 15.1S 52.5EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 12.5S 55.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09KNOTS.2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 56.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 140024Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A COHESIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM ALL SIDES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) OVER 99S WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF MADAGASCAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 99S REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH (34 KTS) IN 12-24 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF JGSM AND ECMWF DEVELOPING IT MUCH LATER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD NEAR TERM AGREEMENT AS 99S TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 150300Z.//NNNN
TPXS11 PGTW 140258 A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99S (N OF LA REUNION)B. 14/0230ZC. 12.72SD. 55.57EE. FIVE/MET8F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRSG. IR/EIRH. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 1.5. DBO DT.I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:   13/2211Z  12.72S  55.68E  ATMS   14/0024Z  12.50S  55.77E  SSMS   LEMBKE abpwsair 201803140230.jpg sh9918.gif 99S_140300sair.jpg


回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 392 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-3-14 14:35 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR 編號07-20172028,趨向馬達加斯加北部,登陸前上望強烈熱帶風暴。
SWI_20172018.png 20180314.0530.msg-4.ir.99S.INVEST.30kts.1002mb.12.4S.55.9E.100pc.jpg

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 392 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-3-14 22:11 | 顯示全部樓層
強度升熱帶低壓第7號,巔峰上望60KT。 CMRSF_201803141200_2_7_20172018.pdf (66.9 KB, 下載次數: 6)
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1543 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

zjk369|2018-3-15 11:30 | 顯示全部樓層
99S_140300sair.jpg sh1418 01.gif
WTXS31 PGTW 150300MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140251ZMAR2018//AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    ---   WARNING POSITION:   150000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 55.0E     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 55.0E    ---   FORECASTS:   12 HRS, VALID AT:   151200Z --- 14.9S 53.4E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS    ---   24 HRS, VALID AT:   160000Z --- 15.4S 51.7E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS    ---   36 HRS, VALID AT:   161200Z --- 15.7S 50.4E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS    ---   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:   48 HRS, VALID AT:   170000Z --- 15.9S 49.6E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS    ---   72 HRS, VALID AT:   180000Z --- 17.3S 49.1E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS    ---   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:    ---   96 HRS, VALID AT:   190000Z --- 20.1S 50.5E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS    ---   120 HRS, VALID AT:   200000Z --- 24.0S 52.9E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    ---REMARKS:150300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 54.6E.TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 383 NMNORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKEDSOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WHICH HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 142303Z SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH AND INTO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT TO THE EAST AND GOOD DIVERGENCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 60 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION. ALSO AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, EXITING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. ONCE OUT OVER WATER, TC 14S WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TRACK DIRECTION WITH LARGE VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE LARGE VARIATIONS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 140300).//NNNN
回復

使用道具 舉報

12下一頁
快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

周子堯@FB

    主題

    帖子

    36萬

    積分

    12級[颶風Hurricane]

    Rank: 12Rank: 12Rank: 12

12級[颶風Hurricane]

發私訊

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

台灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態 淺顯易懂地球科學科科普教育


線上客服
FB訊息傳送
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表