zjk369

JTWC 0230Z發佈TCFAWTXS21 PGTW 140300MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S 56.2E TO 15.1S 52.5EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 12.5S 55.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09KNOTS.2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 56.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 140024Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A COHESIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM ALL SIDES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) OVER 99S WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF MADAGASCAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 99S REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH (34 KTS) IN 12-24 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF JGSM AND ECMWF DEVELOPING IT MUCH LATER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD NEAR TERM AGREEMENT AS 99S TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 150300Z.//NNNN
TPXS11 PGTW 140258 A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99S (N OF LA REUNION)B. 14/0230ZC. 12.72SD. 55.57EE. FIVE/MET8F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRSG. IR/EIRH. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 1.5. DBO DT.I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:   13/2211Z  12.72S  55.68E  ATMS   14/0024Z  12.50S  55.77E  SSMS   LEMBKE

霧峰追風者

zjk369 發表於 2018-3-13 01:41
JTWC 17Z評級MEDIUM

補報文，JTWC 17Z評級提升至Medium,趨向馬達加斯加東岸。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 75.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 55.6E, APPROXIMATELY 700
NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION ABOVE A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENABLING
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT, ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE
MARGINAL (15-20 KNOTS) FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY PREDICT 99S WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AT THE 48 HOUR MARK AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

zjk369

JTWC 17Z評級MEDIUM

霧峰追風者

JTWC 10Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.6S 69.3E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FORMATIVE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO WESTWARD OUTFLOW, THE BENEFITS OF WHICH ARE
OFFSET BY STRONG (25-30 KNOT) THOUGH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY ARE WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A
TC OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BUT
VARY WILDLY ON FORECAST SOLUTIONS. THE JGSM MAINTAINS A SINGLE,
SLOWLY STRENGTHENING STORM ON A WESTWARD TRACK, WHILE GFS, UKMO,
NAVGEM, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW TWO SEPARATE STORMS TRACKING AWAY FROM
EACH OTHER TO THE WEST AND EAST. THESE FOUR MODELS DIFFER ON EACH
STORMS RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.