開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

13P.Linda 掠過澳洲東部海域 南下減弱

簽到天數: 392 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2018-3-9 15:12 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-3-27 14:50 編輯

  一級熱帶氣旋  
編號:10 F |21 U ( 13 P )
名稱:Linda
800px-Linda_2018-03-13_0310Z.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2018 03 09 14
JTWC升格日期:2018 03 12 20
命名日期  :2018 03 13 14
撤編日期  :2018 03 00 00
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速:
斐濟氣象局 (FMS):25 kt
澳洲氣象局 (BoM):35 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):50 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓:994 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
1920px-Linda_2018_track.png
  擾動編號資料  
90P-INVEST-15kts-997mb-4.5S-160.0E

20180309.0630.himawari-8.vis.90P.INVEST.15kts.997mb.4.5S.160E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:FMS、BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2018擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 392 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-3-12 07:39 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 21Z直接評級Medium
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6S 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA,
SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT
SOURCE ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
abpwsair (3).jpg rgb-animated.gif 90P_gefs_latest.png

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1543 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

zjk369|2018-3-12 12:03 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 0230Z直接評級TC
abpwsair 201803120230.jpg sh9018.gif 90P_120230sams.jpg

點評

是TCFA喔~  發表於 2018-3-12 16:08
是TCFA"熱帶氣旋形成警報",不是TC..  發表於 2018-3-12 15:09
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 392 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-3-12 15:07 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 編號10F
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 112312 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F CENTER [1000HPA] ANALYSISED NEAR 12.4S
160.0E AT 112100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY OBSERVATIONS.

ORGANISATION POOR WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO EAST. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER A UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS OVER TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
20180312.0630.himawari-8.ir.90P.INVEST.30kts.1000mb.14.5S.159.9E.100pc.jpg

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1543 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

zjk369|2018-3-12 20:06 | 顯示全部樓層
TPPS11 PGTW 120953
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (S OF SOLOMAN ISLANDS)
B. 12/0900Z
C. 15.28S
D. 160.05E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET ALSO YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   12/0359Z  13.98S  159.82E  SSMI
   12/0459Z  14.42S  159.90E  SSMS
   12/0515Z  14.70S  160.02E  MMHS
   VEERKAMP
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 392 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-3-12 20:47 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-3-12 20:48 編輯

JTWC 12Z率先升格熱帶氣旋,編號13P。 20180312.1220.himawari-8.ircolor.13P.INVEST.35kts.996mb.15.7S.159.9E.100pc.jpg
20180312.1210.himawari-8.ir.90P.INVEST.35kts.996mb.15.7S.159.9E.100pc.jpg avn_lalo-animated.gif

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1543 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

zjk369|2018-3-12 22:54 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 zjk369 於 2018-3-12 23:05 編輯

WTPS31 PGTW 121500MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120251ZMAR2018//AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    ---   WARNING POSITION:   121200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 159.9E     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 159.9E    ---   FORECASTS:   12 HRS, VALID AT:   130000Z --- 18.3S 159.1E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS    ---   24 HRS, VALID AT:   131200Z --- 20.3S 157.8E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS    ---   36 HRS, VALID AT:   140000Z --- 21.5S 156.4E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS    ---   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:   48 HRS, VALID AT:   141200Z --- 22.9S 155.6E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS    ---   72 HRS, VALID AT:   151200Z --- 25.8S 156.2E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS    ---   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:    ---   96 HRS, VALID AT:   161200Z --- 29.0S 159.8E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER    ---REMARKS:121500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 159.7E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 497 NMWEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE SYSTEM HASRAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AS FRAGMENTED BANDS - MOSTLY EMANATING FROM THENORTH - COALESCED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIALPOSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A LOWREFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 121054Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASSWITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENTDVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO. THE CYCLONEIS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING STR TO THESOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OFLOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY STRONG DUALOUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS IN THE AREA ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C TO31C. AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD, TC 13P WILL TRACK MORESOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TOROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK SOUTHWARD THEN RECURVESOUTHEASTWARD. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING IN-PHASE WITH THESTORM MOTION, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVESPOLEWARD. HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILLPREVAIL AND PROMOTE MODERATE INTENSIFICATION UP TO 50 KNOTS AT TAU24-36. AFTERWARD, AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR, STRONG VWS ANDCOOLING SSTS WILL TAKE THEIR TOLL AND ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 96, TC13P WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGSAT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 120300).//NNNN 13P_121200sair.jpg sh1318 01.gif abpwsair 201803121445.jpg

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1543 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

zjk369|2018-3-13 01:43 | 顯示全部樓層
abpwsair 201803121700.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

12下一頁
快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

霧峰追風者

    主題

    帖子

    151萬

    積分

    15級[三級颶風]

    Rank: 15Rank: 15Rank: 15Rank: 15Rank: 15

15級[三級颶風]

發私訊

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

台灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態 淺顯易懂地球科學科科普教育


線上客服
FB訊息傳送
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表