(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6S 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA,
SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT
SOURCE ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
