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91S 對流消長

簽到天數: 485 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2018-3-9 17:59 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2018-3-17 17:48 編輯

基本資料  
編號    :91
S
擾動編號日期:2018 03 09 17
撤編日期  :2018 03 17 14
91S-INVEST-15kts-1000mb-11.0S-73.5E

20180309.0930.himawari-8.ir.91S.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.11S.73.5E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2018擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
s6815711 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 485 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-3-10 04:51 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 17Z評級LOW
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.2S 73.9E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, FORMATIVE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL REVEALS STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS BEING OFFSET BY
STRONG (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS PREVENTING
SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE REGION ARE WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. HOWEVER, DUE TO TWO SYSTEMS
DEVELOPING IN THE SAME AREA (99S AND 91S) THE MODELS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE FORECAST. THE JGSM PRODUCES A SINGLE, SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING STORM ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK INDICATING THAT
91S WILL NOT DEVELOP. THE GFS, UKMO, NAVGEM, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW TWO
SEPARATE SYSTEMS TRACKING AWAY FROM EACH OTHER TO THE WEST AND EAST
AND VARYING IN RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair (2).jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-3-10 14:04 | 顯示全部樓層
提升評級至Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S
73.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 75.5E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER A FORMATIVE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE EAST, REACHING TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

91S_gefs_latest.png
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簽到天數: 485 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-3-12 04:42 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 17Z取消評級
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 75.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
abpwsair.jpg 20180311.2010.himawari-8.ir.91S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.14.2S.80.3E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

zjk369|2018-3-14 11:30 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 0230Z發佈LOW
abpwsair 201803140230.jpg

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簽到天數: 485 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-3-14 14:12 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 02Z評級重回Low
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.7S 80.0E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 132242Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A LARGE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE SOUTH OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) OVER 91S. HOWEVER THIS
IS OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW INDUCING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. WARM
(27-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT
BEYOND 24 HOURS, BUT VARY ON HOW LONG THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY BEFORE HEADING SOUTHWEST.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
20180314.0530.himawari-8.vis.91S.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.12.7S.80E.100pc.jpg 91S_gefs_latest.png

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簽到天數: 485 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-3-15 05:21 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 17Z取消評級
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S 80.0E, APPROXIMATELY 548 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA,
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
20180314.2040.himawari-8.ir.91S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.13.5S.81.5E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2018-3-17 14:41 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2018-3-17 17:10 編輯

NRL 05z(UTC+8)撤編!
擷取.PNG

20180317.0500.msg1.x.vis1km_high.91SINVEST.20kts-1007mb-135S-753E.100pc.jpg


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