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ARB 01(90B) 北印首擾

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

2018-3-11 18:07 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-3-16 16:16 編輯

基本資料  
編號    :90
B
擾動編號日期:2018 03 11 17
撤編日期  :2018 03 16 14
90B-INVEST-15kts-1007mb-3.0N-82.0E

20180311.0930.himawari-8.vis.90B.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.3N.82E.100pc.jpg
IMD編號BOB 01
A low pressure area lies over equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal and south Sri Lanka coast. It is likely to move gradually west-northwestwards become well marked during the next 48 hrs over the Comorin area and adjoining southeast Arabian sea. It is likely to concentrate into a Depression over the southeast Arabian sea during subsequent 24 hrs.


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這兩天就看到這坨螺旋性不錯  發表於 2018-3-11 18:24

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2018擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 459 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-3-12 04:38 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 17Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 1.7N
81.4E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION CENTRALLY
LOCATED OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg 20180311.2010.himawari-8.ircolor.90B.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.2.8N.77E.100pc.jpg

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zjk369|2018-3-13 01:38 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 17Z評級MEDIUM abpwsair 201803121700.jpg
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霧峰追風者|2018-3-13 02:06 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 17Z評級提升至Medium,將進入阿拉伯海。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 1.7N 81.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 78.6E, APPROXIMATELY 180
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION REVOLVING OVER AN
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER LEVEL (UL)
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH STRONG UL DIVERGENCE DUE TO WESTWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE ON TRACK AS 90B TRACKS
NORTHWEST INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AS TO WHEN 90B REACHES WARNING STRENGTH, WITH GFS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THE 24-36HR TIME FRAME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg 20180312.1740.himawari-8.ir.90B.INVEST.10kts.1009mb.4.2N.78.6E.100pc.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2018-3-13 16:52 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD 強度升低壓,改編ARB 01
BULLETIN NO. : 01 (ARB 01/2018)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1200 HOURS IST DATED: 13.03.2018

Sub: Depression over southeast Arabian Sea
Yesterday’s well marked low pressure area over Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining south
Srilanka & Maldives-Comorin area concentrated into a depression and lay centred at 0830 IST of
today, the 13th March 2018 over southeast Arabian Sea adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean near
latitude 5.00N and longitude 76.00E, about 480 km southeast of Minicoy, 390 km south-southwest of
Thiruvananthapuram and 290 km east-northeast of Male (Maldives). It is very likely to move
northwestwards and intensify into a deep depression during next 48 hrs.
rsmc.pdf (256.17 KB, 下載次數: 4)
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

zjk369|2018-3-14 03:27 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 已降格LOW
abpwsair 201803131700.jpg

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-3-16 04:47 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 17Z取消評級
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 72.0E,
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
20180315.1930.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.90BINVEST.20kts-1007mb-108N-716E.100pc.jpg

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