krichard2011

稍早19:00 UTC 眼牆閃電幾乎均勻圍成一圈
不過對流爆太強了 高層風眼遲遲無法清空
清晨的底層掃描顯示 Marcus 應該算是個針眼

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z強度升三級颶風，首次預測巔峰上看五級颶風。

TPXS12 PGTW 192137

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS)
B. 19/2100Z
C. 15.19S
D. 119.21E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. SUBTRACTED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD
A DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 5.5. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   19/1655Z  14.88S  120.08E  ATMS
   19/1820Z  14.95S  119.47E  SSMI


  BERMEA

BoM 強度升四級熱帶氣旋，目前眼牆在置換。

krichard2011

目前核心區域有非常密集的閃電發展
表示眼牆對流相當旺盛
甚至也不排除 Rapid Intensification 爆發性增強正在發生
短時間內可能出現強度暴衝的現象


補充
稍早閃電甚至已環起來成一個圈圈

圖片截自Weatherzone

霧峰追風者

風眼開啟，JTWC 12Z強度升二級颶風上限，持續增強。

周子堯@FB

風眼細小，逐漸清晰，BOM預測48小時內升至澳式C5，有機會挑戰南太風王
JTWC 12Z分析已來到T5.5，預計下一報風速將升到100kt

TPXS12 PGTW 191221

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS)

B. 19/1200Z

C. 15.50S

D. 121.11E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/21HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.5. MET/PT N/A. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   19/0710Z  15.50S  122.67E  SSMI
   19/0717Z  15.48S  122.30E  MMHS
   19/0806Z  15.53S  122.18E  GPMI


   DAVIS

t02436

06Z升澳式C3

霧峰追風者

中心出海，第三度升二級熱帶氣旋。

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0116 UTC 19/03/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Marcus
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.8S
Longitude: 123.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [274 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  19/0600: 14.9S 122.7E:     030 [060]:  060  [110]:  981
+12:  19/1200: 14.9S 121.7E:     045 [080]:  070  [130]:  973
+18:  19/1800: 14.8S 120.6E:     055 [105]:  075  [140]:  970
+24:  20/0000: 14.6S 119.4E:     070 [130]:  080  [150]:  966
+36:  20/1200: 14.5S 116.7E:     090 [165]:  090  [165]:  957
+48:  21/0000: 14.4S 113.7E:     110 [200]:  100  [185]:  947
+60:  21/1200: 14.8S 111.1E:     130 [235]:  110  [205]:  936
+72:  22/0000: 15.7S 108.8E:     145 [270]:  120  [220]:  923
+96:  23/0000: 19.7S 106.7E:     190 [355]:  120  [220]:  922
+120: 24/0000: 24.8S 106.7E:     280 [515]:  080  [150]:  960
REMARKS:
At 0000 UTC Monday, TC Marcus was located using radar and microwave imagery.
Marcus moved offshore from the NW Kimberley coast around 12 UTC Sunday.

Dvorak: Shear pattern on EIR [1/3 deg into strong T gradient] yields a DT of
3.5. Curved band wrap of 1.0 on VIS yields a DT of 3.5. Intensity set to 50
knots. CIMSS/NESDIS ADT was 3.7. SATCON was 67 knots [1 min mean] at 22 UTC.   

TC_SSMIS at 1955 UTC and 2208 UTC showed deep convection to the west and
southwest of the centre with evidence of a slightly tilted vortex with the E/NE
shear. A band of deep convection was also located to the north and northwest of
the system.

CIMSS shear was about ENE 10 knots at 21 UTC. There was good equatorward and
poleward outflow and upper divergence.

Ocean Heat Content is favourable and SSTs are around 30C along the forecast
track. NWP is in strong agreement with a mid level ridge steering the system
towards the west over the next few days.

TC Marcus is forecast to intensify into a category 3, severe tropical cyclone
later on Monday or early Tuesday. Further intensification to category 4 and then
category 5 is possible by Wednesday as it continues to track towards the west.
From Wednesday the ridge will move eastwards and an approaching upper level
trough will help steer the system towards the southwest then towards the south
on Thursday.

As Marcus tracks towards the south on Friday it should start to weaken with
decreasing SSTs and increasing wind shear.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.

JTWC 00Z強度升一級颶風。

TXXS23 KNES 190050
TCSSIO

A.  15S (MARCUS)
B.  18/2330Z
C.  14.7S
D.  123.7E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T4.5/4.5/D0.5/06HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2/SSMI/SSMIS/GMI
H.  REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. DT
OF 3.5 IS BASED ON 1.4 DEG WELL DEFINED CDO, BUT DATA IS UNREPRESENTATIVE
DUE TO RAPIDLY CHANGING CLOUD FEATURES. MET AND PT ARE 4.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    18/1730Z 14.7S 124.3E AMSR2
    18/1836Z 14.8S 124.2E SSMI
    18/1955Z 14.8S 124.1E SSMIS
    18/2036Z 14.7S 124.0E GMI
    18/2208Z 14.7S 123.8E SSMIS
...RAMIREZ

霧峰追風者

霧峰追風者 發表於 2018-3-18 11:18
再次登陸澳洲北部。

登陸後風眼隱現。

TPXS12 PGTW 180300
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS)
B. 18/0230Z
C. 14.43S
D. 127.36E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   17/2215Z  14.23S  127.95E  SSMS
   18/0037Z  14.27S  127.72E  MMHS

   LEMBKE