周子堯@FB

假使生成，生成地究竟離赤道多近，值得關注!!

abc123nba

雖然我不知道,樓上的判斷依據何來[流汗表情...]
但以目前的資料研判,約3月28日左右今年首個春颱確實有可能被命名

zjk369

命名機會大增

霧峰追風者

JTWC 14Z取消TCFA，降評至Medium。

WTPN21 PGTW 181430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180221ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 180230). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 155.8E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 156.4E, APPROXIMATELY 108 NM WEST OF POHNPEI.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION FLARING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER, AND MOST OF THE DEFINED TURNING IN THE MID LEVELS. AN
180739Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH WEAK BANDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY AND AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH, HOWEVER, WHEN VIEWING THE
180739Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN AS
VERY BROAD AND WAVE-LIKE IN APPEARANCE, AND NOT SHOWING A DEFINED
LOW LEVEL SYSTEM. AN 181038Z ASCAT PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC
DEPICTS A VERY WEAK (5-10 KNOT) AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
HIGHER WINDS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING OF ITS MOVEMENT, WITH SOME MODELS DEPICTING QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT IN THE EARLY TAUS BEFORE HEADING WEST-SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY INDICATING CONSOLIDATION
THEY HAVE BACKED OFF AND NOW NO MODELS ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND
RECENT ASCAT PASS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

TPPN10 PGTW 181503

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (NW OF POHNPEI)
B. 18/1430Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

DAVIS

周子堯@FB

JTWC 09z分析再次回到T1.5，JMA 15時仍維持LPA近幾個小時中心對流有爆發跡象

TPPN10 PGTW 180940

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (NW OF POHNPEI)

B. 18/0900Z

C. 8.65N

D. 156.93E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
1.5 DT. MET/PT 1.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   DAVIS

zjk369

JMA 今晚21升格熱帶低壓 應該會提前在下午15Z升格

zjk369

JMA 15Z發佈LPA

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z發佈TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 170230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 8.2N 156.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 156.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N
156.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 156.3E, APPROXIMATELY 115NM WEST OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL
MASS OF CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN TO A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 162312Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS SHOWS 20KT WINDS FLOWING INTO THE LLCC ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE
SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE EQUATORIAL WESTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
CONFLICTED ON WHICH DIRECTION 96W WILL TRAVEL FROM THE ABSENCE OF A
DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. HOWEVER, EACH SOLUTION INDICATES SOME
DEGREE OF POLEWARD DISPLACEMENT AND EVENTUALLY A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BEYOND TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180230Z.//
NNNN

TXPQ22 KNES 162121
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)
B.  16/1830Z
C.  7.5N
D.  156.0E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SHEAR PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH THE LLCC GREATER THAN 75 NM FROM A LARGE COLD OVERCAST FOR A
DT=1.5. MET=1.0. PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LEE