(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.3N
156.6E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161652Z SSMIS PARTIAL
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KNOT) AND DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SUPPORTIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK
CIRCULATION OR TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
TXPQ22 KNES 161738
TCSWNP
CCA
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)
B. 16/1430Z
C. 7.7N
D. 156.7E
E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR CENTER LOCATION BASED ON REANALYSIS OF
SWIR IMAGERY, WHICH SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE
ACTIVE CONVECTION. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CONVECTION MEASURES SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2/10 RESULTING IN A DT OF
1.0. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
