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20S.Fakir 逐漸增強 趨向留尼旺島

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[LV.8]以壇為家I

2018-4-16 16:37 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-4-24 08:45 編輯

  強烈熱帶風暴  
編號:08-20172018 ( 20 S )
名稱:Fakir

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2018 04 16 15
JTWC升格日期:2018 04 23 20
命名日期  :2018 04 23 20
撤編日期  :2018 04 00 00
登陸地點  :暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速:
法國氣象局 ( MFR ):55 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):50 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓:985 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
93S-INVEST.15kts-1010mb-5.7S-58.2E

20180416.0630.msg1.x.vis1km_high.93SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-57S-582E.100pc.jpg
以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

點評

是5.7S,不是5.7N;5.7N-58.2E是北印度洋(ARB)  發表於 2018-4-16 22:17

評分

參與人數 2水氣能量 +15 2018颱風積分 0 2018擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 -1 + 1
jwpk9899 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 333 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

霧峰追風者|2018-4-20 21:49 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 13Z評級Low
abpwsair.jpg 20180420.1300.msg-4.ir.93S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.7.2S.55E.100pc.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2018-4-21 04:16 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-4-21 15:30 編輯

JTWC 17Z評級提升至Medium
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.8S 56.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2S 55.0E, APPROXIMATELY 790
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD,
CONSOLIDATING LLC. A 04201523Z PARTIAL SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING. THE
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SSTS ARE WARM (28-29C) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT, WITH NAVGEM
AND GFS PREDICTING DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE THE UKMET MODEL
DOES NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
79_90766_d92a369196f95af.jpg 20180420.1930.msg-4.ircolor.93S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.7.3S.54.1E.100pc.jpg

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周子堯@FB|2018-4-22 17:53 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 08Z發佈TCFA
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 51.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 50.6E, APPROXIMATELY 705
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 220252Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS THE
DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH DISTINCT POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH AT APPROXIMATELY
TAU 24 WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF
MADAGASCAR AS IT TRANSITS ALONG A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
sh9318.gif
20180422.0830.msg1.x.vis1km_high.93SINVEST.25kts-1006mb-101S-506E.100pc.jpg

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t02436|2018-4-23 15:31 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR編號熱帶低壓第八號
WTIO22 FMEE 230620
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/04/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/04/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8  1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 52.1 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/23 AT 18 UTC:
17.3 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/04/24 AT 06 UTC:
19.9 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

SWI_20172018.png

20180423.0630.msg-4.ircolor.93S.INVEST.30kts.1000mb.14.6S.52.1E.100pc.jpg
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霧峰追風者|2018-4-23 21:49 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 12Z率先升格熱帶氣旋,編號20S,預測將直襲留尼旺島。 sh202018.20180423133441.gif 20180423.1300.msg-4.ircolor.20S.FAKIR.40kts.993mb.15.8S.52.9E.100pc.jpg 20180423.1220.noaa19.89rgb.20S.FAKIR.35kts.1006mb.15.8S.52.9E.095pc.jpg
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霧峰追風者|2018-4-23 22:07 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR 12Z命名“Fakir”,路徑預估也直襲留尼旺島。
SWI_20172018.png

CMRSF_201804231200_FAKIR.pdf (67.17 KB, 下載次數: 0)
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霧峰追風者|2018-4-24 05:35 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR 18Z強度升“強烈熱帶風暴”,底層建立。
SWI_20172018.png 20180423.1809.metopa.89rgb.20S.FAKIR.50kts.1000mb.17.5S.54.1E.095pc.jpg 20180423.2000.msg-4.ircolor.20S.FAKIR.50kts.1000mb.17.5S.54.1E.100pc.jpg

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