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03E.Bud 爆發增強 東太3天內連兩個MH

簽到天數: 434 天

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2018-6-8 21:04 | 顯示全部樓層
  四級颶風  
編號:03 E
名稱:Bud

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2018 06 08 20
命名日期  :2018 06 10 08
撤編日期  :2018 06 17 12
登陸地點  :墨西哥 下加利福尼亞半島

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
國家颶風中心(NHC):115 kts
海平面最低氣壓948 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
92E-INVEST.20kts-1005mb-12.0N-97.0W

20180607.2130.f15.37h.92E.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.12N.97W.060pc.jpg
NHC : 70%
1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave located
a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become more
organized since yesterday with a better defined surface circulation.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become conducive for development
by Saturday, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form over the weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

two_pac_2d1 (4).png

以上資料來自:NHC颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2018擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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周子堯@FB|2018-6-9 14:55 | 顯示全部樓層
TCFA
ep9218.gif
92E_081430sair.jpg


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霧峰追風者|2018-6-10 05:08 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 21Z升格熱帶低壓"03E",有機會在今天命名,巔峰上望90KT。
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 092038
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance to
the south of Mexico has developed a well-defined surface
circulation.  One-minute imagery from a GOES-16 mesoscale sector
was useful in determining that the circulation had become closed.
In addition, deep convection has increased near the center today and
a nearly continuous band of cold cloud tops wraps around the
southern and western semicircles of the circulation.  The latest
Dvorak classification from TAFB is a 2.0/2.0, and on that basis the
system has been classified as Tropical Depression Three-E with an
initial intensity of 30 kt.

The initial motion is estimated to be 295/8 kt, but this is rather
uncertain since the surface center of the depression has been often
obscured by higher clouds this afternoon.  A west-northwest to
northwest heading, parallel to the coast of Mexico, is likely for
the next few days while the system moves along the periphery of a
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico.  Near the end of the forecast
period, the cyclone should slow and turn more toward the north-
northwest, between the aforementioned ridge to the east and a mid-
to upper-level trough to the west.  The dynamical guidance is very
tightly clustered, with the main uncertainty being speed.  The
official forecast is near the mean of the GFS and ECMWF positions
and closely follows the corrected consensus, HCCA.

The depression is located within a generally favorable environment
for strengthening.  SSTs are above 30 deg C and there is ample
moisture.  The only inhibiting factor appears to be moderate
northeasterly shear of 10-15 kt, as analyzed by the GFS and ECMWF
models, which should decrease within the next 24 hours.  At least
steady strengthening is shown by all of the intensity guidance, and
this seems likely for the next 24 hours.  Beyond that time, rapid
intensification can not be ruled out.  The official forecast at 36
through 72 h is near the top of the intensity guidance, in close
agreement with the DSHP model.  By day 5, the cyclone will likely
approach a sharp SST gradient south of the Baja California peninsula
which should cause it to quickly weaken.  By the end of the forecast
period, the NHC forecast is close to the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 12.4N 101.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  10/0600Z 13.2N 102.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  10/1800Z 14.3N 104.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  11/0600Z 15.4N 105.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  11/1800Z 16.2N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  12/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  13/1800Z 18.5N 109.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
204013_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png 20180609.1800.goes15.x.ir1km_bw.92EINVEST.30kts-1007mb-118N-1005W.100pc.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2018-6-10 08:47 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 00Z命名"BUD",持續增強。
20180610.0000.goes-15.ir.03E.BUD.35kts.1003mb.12.6N.101.7W.100pc.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2018-6-11 04:34 | 顯示全部樓層
18Z強度升一級颶風。
20180610.2000.goes15.x.vis1km_high.03EBUD.65kts-987mb-151N-1038W.80pc.jpg

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蜜露|2018-6-11 17:54 | 顯示全部樓層


颶風巴德 , 增強速度很快 .. 艾莉塔減弱後換巴德 , 底層看起來是完善的 .
GFS的上望和颶風艾莉塔巔峰差不多 .

20180611.0432.metopa.89rgb.03E.BUD.70kts.984mb.15.7N.104.6W.080pc.jpg


2018EP03_16KMGWVP_201806110900.GIF


環境可能贏過艾莉塔 .
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t02436|2018-6-11 18:47 | 顯示全部樓層
09Z評價90節,上望100節。
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 110833
TCDEP3

Hurricane Bud Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

After an abrupt strengthening episode around 0300-0500 UTC, Bud
seems to have at least temporarily leveled off since the eye has
recently become less distinct.  The intensity estimate of 90 kt is
based on a subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB, and ADT
estimates from UW/CIMSS that were a little higher.  Bud should
remain in a favorable environment for strengthening through today,
and gradually cooling water temperatures are expected to induce a
slow weakening trend thereafter.  The official intensity forecast is
a little above the latest model consensus.  Significantly cooler
waters around the southern tip of Baja California should reduce
Bud's intensity below hurricane status before it reaches that land
area.

The hurricane tracked a little more westward overnight, but the
initial motion is still estimated to be northwest, or 305/9 kt.  A
weak mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern United States
is expected to persist for the next few days.  Bud is expected to
move along the southwestern periphery of the ridge and turn toward
the north-northwest in 1-2 days.  Around that time, the steering
flow is expected to become quite weak and Bud's forward speed is
forecast to slow to 3-4 kt.  Later in the forecast period, the
ridge become slightly stronger so Bud should move at least a little
faster toward the Baja peninsula.  The official forecast is
similar to the previous one and roughly in the middle of the track
guidance.

The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been reduced slightly based on
data from the latest ASCAT overpass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 16.3N 106.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  11/1800Z 17.1N 106.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  12/0600Z 17.7N 107.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  12/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  13/0600Z 18.7N 107.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  14/0600Z 20.4N 108.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  15/0600Z 22.2N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 24.0N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

083727_5day_cone_with_line.png

rbtop-animated.gif

點評

12Z速報評價100節 03E BUD 180611 1200 16.5N 106.6W EPAC 100 960  發表於 2018-6-11 21:24
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霧峰追風者|2018-6-12 08:58 | 顯示全部樓層
風眼清空,00Z強度來到110節。
TXPZ23 KNES 120023
TCSENP

A.  03E (BUD)

B.  12/0000Z

C.  17.5N

D.  107.2W

E.  ONE/GOES-W

F.  T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND
EMBEDDED IN LG FOR A DT=5.5 MET=5.0 PT=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL

...FISHER


avn_lalo-animated.gif 20180612.0030.goes-15.ircolor.03E.BUD.110kts.951mb.17.4N.107.3W.100pc.jpg


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