JTWC 19Z評級LOW

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3N
153.6E, APPROXIMATELY 601 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTION. A 111929Z GMI 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE NASCENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES REVEAL 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH 92W, WITH STRONGER WINDS DISPLACED UP TO 200NM FROM
THE CUSP OF A WAVELIKE PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS)
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (29-30
C), CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH-WEST, BUT DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH IT
WILL DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW

個人所見，92W是一個典型的東風波，穩定向偏西方向移動。
值得留意是副高的形態，在西南季風隨著06W的北上而帶動以後，目前開始北抬之中，副高的緯度亦隨著西南季風噴流的北上而脊線有緩慢偏北向上的跡象。但由於副高延伸的影響，個人會認為92W有可能在未來出現稍微西南偏西的路徑，當然亦有可能直接突破副高的弱點往北，自己經驗尚淺，需要時間觀察。

數值暫時不看好發展。