(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.2N 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED, FLARING
CONVECTION WITH A 120130Z MHS METOP-A MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALING THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE INVEST AREA. A
120228Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS IS INCONCLUSIVE IN IDENTIFYING A SURFACE
CIRCULATION. INVEST 93W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS, AND WARM SSTS (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS STRONGLY AGREE IN
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH IT MEETING WARNING CRITERIA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OKINAWA BEFORE MAKING A SLIGHT TURN TO TRACK
JUST EAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
