B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
19.6N 114.3E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 16/2245Z WINDSAT
37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WITH DISORGANIZED BANDING ELSEWHERE. A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE
REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A NARROW SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA AND 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NAVGEM INDICATES
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO
THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE OTHER DYNAMIC MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO AND
JGSM) TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
