(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 132.9E, APPROXIMATELY
500 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
POCKETS OF CONVECTION, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, AND WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING PRESENT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE SYSTEM'S CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED GREATLY. A 272110Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION
WITH DISTINCT LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES PRESENT. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW (10-
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). RECENT GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90W WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.8N 132.9E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION, BROAD TURNING, AND FORMATIVE
BANDING. A 271228Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
ROTATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER AND LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION. A 271227Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
BUT CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM, AND A PATCH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
RECENT GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS 90W TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH
NAVGEM INTENSIFYING 90W THE MOST AS A CLOSED ORGANIZED CIRCULATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
