ben811018

EC最新系集
看發相當分歧

跟其他數值路徑也滿不同的
繼續觀察囉！

霧峰追風者

JTWC 03Z發布TCFA，穩定西移漸增強。

WTPN21 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 148.6E TO 12.6N 144.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 147.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.2N 148.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 147.9E, APPROXIMATELY
260 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 012336Z
MHS 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG WESTERLY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN
ELONGATED, FORMATIVE LLCC. A 011101Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED BUT
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS AND 10 TO 15
KNOT WESTERLY WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DUAL
OUTFLOW WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR 18N 160E,
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD GUAM WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL
MODELS ALSO SHOW VIGOROUS EASTERLY, CONVERGENT FLOW, WHICH MAY FUEL
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND TRACKS NEAR THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030300Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

最新分析出T1.0，逐漸增強。

TXPQ21 KNES 012117
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B.  01/2030Z

C.  8.3N

D.  149.2E

E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM
IR DATA. GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING ON LOG 10 SPIRAL RESULTS IN
DT=1.0. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATION.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL

...BOLL

颱風熱愛者

日本氣象廳預計明天7/3 21：00升格為熱低壓

颱風熱愛者

評級提升至 MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 151.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY
277 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 012028Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG WESTERLY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN
ELONGATED, FORMATIVE LLCC. A 011101Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED BUT
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS AND 10 TO 15
KNOT WESTERLY WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DUAL
OUTFLOW WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR 18N 160E,
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD GUAM WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL
MODELS ALSO SHOW VIGOROUS EASTERLY, CONVERGENT FLOW, WHICH MAY FUEL
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND TRACKS NEAR THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

jrchang5

EC最新一報。繼續觀察後續變化。

王子又

巴比侖颱風末期與太平壓高壓的互動將決定未來一周熱帶擾動的可能動向，目前三大數值模式對此一影響有明顯分歧。

jrchang5

EC之系集圖各成員的路徑模擬仍未收束，顯示後續路徑仍存有相當大的變數。