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93W JMA:TD/Medium 滯留北部灣

簽到天數: 415 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2018-7-11 01:51 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-7-16 15:03 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :93 W
擾動編號日期:2018 07 11 01
撤編日期  :2018 07 00 00
93W.INVEST.15kts-1003mb-18.3N-111.1E

20180710.1720.himawari-8.ir.93W.INVEST.15kts.1003mb.18.3N.111.1E.100pc.jpg

點評

看不出有甚結構存在這真的算是一隻天氣系統嗎??...,不過受到相關雲系影響要去海南跟越南的的朋友要注意下雨情況。  發表於 2018-7-11 11:15

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2018擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 1824 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-7-14 10:37 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.9N 107.1E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BACH LONG VI,
VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA
OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH WEAK BANDING OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. A RECENT 132245Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE EMPHASIZES
THAT THERE IS LIMITED CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
SURROUNDING THE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-20 KNOTS), WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30C). THIS ENVIRONMENT LENDS SUPPORT TO THE MODELS
DEPICTING MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF TONKIN FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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簽到天數: 1824 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-7-15 10:46 | 顯示全部樓層
評級提升至Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.9N 107.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 108.4E, APPROXIMATELY
82 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BACH LONG VI, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES
EXPOSED OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 142242Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THE CONVECTION IS BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE SOUTH AND
WESTERN PERIPHERIES AND HAS BEGUN WRAPPING INTO LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS)
UNDER STRAIGHT-LINE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30C). THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME AND
ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH THE SYSTEM'S PROXIMITY TO HAINAN ISLAND WILL HINDER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WITH MODELS STILL DEPICTING MINIMAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF
TONKIN REGION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

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簽到天數: 715 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

周子堯@FB|2018-7-16 14:19 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA升格為熱低,LLCC明顯,有點裸露
18071609.png

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