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1810 安比 正面襲擊上海 沿中國東岸北上 影響華北地區

簽到天數: 485 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2018-7-12 01:43 | 顯示全部樓層
  輕度颱風  
編號:1810 ( 12 W )
名稱:安比 ( Ampil )
1810suomi 0720.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2018 07 12 01
升格熱低日期:2018 07 17 08
命名日期  :2018 07 18 20
停編日期  :2018 07 24 02
登陸地點  :中國 上海市 崇明島

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):25 m/s ( 10 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :25 m/s ( 50 kt )
中國氣象局 (CMA):28 m/s ( STS )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):50 kts ( TS )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓:985 百帕
七級風半徑  :150 公里
十級風半徑  :---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
94W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-11.5N-134.0E

20180711.1710.himawari-8.ir.94W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.11.5N.134E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、CMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

點評

alu
不是有登陸日本琉球嗎?  發表於 2018-7-22 15:28

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2018擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
s6815711 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 1700 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2018-7-12 09:39 | 顯示全部樓層
這個戲通應該會先跟92W整合為一個系統...
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簽到天數: 814 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2018-7-13 08:16 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC12/21Z評級Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N
132.9E, APPROXIMATELY 202 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121759Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH GENERALIZED
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 121316Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 15-20
KNOT WIND BARBS LOCATED TO THE WEST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE (15-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). 94W IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE FEATURE TO THE EAST OF
THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
EASTWARD, EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE LATER TAUS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE FEATURE, AS SHOWN IN GFS AND ECMWF. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg


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簽到天數: 12 天

[LV.3]偶爾看看II

ktf|2018-7-13 13:00 | 顯示全部樓層
對數值來說難報了,兩系統距離近,掌握度會很低
會看到每報都在變,難有共識,只能整合成功或分家才會稍明朗

點評

單從過去六小時及最新渦旋度來看,他們似乎真的想分家~ [attachimg]79111[/attachimg] [attachimg]79113[/attachimg]  詳情 回復 發表於 2018-7-13 14:50
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2018-7-13 14:50 | 顯示全部樓層
ktf 發表於 2018-7-13 13:00
對數值來說難報了,兩系統距離近,掌握度會很低
會看到每報都在變,難有共識,只能整合成功或分家才會稍明朗
...

單從過去六小時及最新渦旋度來看,他們似乎真的想分家~
0713-05.png
0713-11.png


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簽到天數: 485 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-7-13 15:10 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 05Z評級提升Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY
260 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 130049Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED JUST OFFSET OF
THE CENTER, TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW (5-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). 94W IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE
FEATURE TO THE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE EAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD, EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE IN THE LATER TAUS, AS SHOWN IN GFS AND ECMWF. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL HAVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH INVEST 92W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair (1).jpg avn-animated (2).gif

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-7-14 10:35 | 顯示全部樓層
將被92W吸收,取消評級。
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 132.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

abpwsair.jpg

rb-animated.gif

點評

EC 和GFS 最近幾報數值開始支持發展..  發表於 2018-7-15 01:39
94W 才對XD  發表於 2018-7-15 00:48
alu
black-lagoon 請問95W在哪裡?  發表於 2018-7-14 16:27
這樣看起來95W 才是我們要關注的重點  發表於 2018-7-14 14:21
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簽到天數: 814 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2018-7-15 20:48 | 顯示全部樓層
從GFS最新報與EC預報來看應該是94W沒錯
再來就看看JTWC何時恢復評級,與低層環流的發展狀況囉~
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ea_fh18-234.gif
ecmwf_z500_mslp_ea_fh48-240.gif
vis_lalo-animated-94w-1.gif

目前對流有爆發的狀況,是否進一步整合還要再觀察~
建議標題可以改囉~~


點評

看起來要等到92W沒搶94W的營養才有辦法明顯提升  發表於 2018-7-16 04:40
這週的關注焦點  發表於 2018-7-16 01:29
alu
看起來要等92進入南海後,才有可能發展  發表於 2018-7-15 21:09
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