2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.6N 127.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 128.1E, APPROXIMATELY
420 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH POCKETS OF PERSISTING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER IT. A 170746Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
DEEPENING CONVECTION PERSISTING PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST LOCATED
OVER IT. A 170105Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH SOME 15 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING IN, AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS LOCATED TO THE PERIPHERY,
NOT YET WRAPPING IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OR SLIGHTLY EAST BEFORE HEADING
NORTH AND INTENSIFYING. IN THE LATER TAUS THE MODELS SHOW A
NORTHWEST TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
