t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

t02436

評級提升到Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1N 146.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 141.9E, APPROXIMATELY
180 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION
AND LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO APPEAR. A 210042Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
SHALLOW CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE,
LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME MODELS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST
BEFORE HEADING NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1N 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 180002Z MHS METOP-A
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LLC. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
SEVERAL 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) WILL AID FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS EXPRESS THAT 96W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE NEXT 48-72HRS AND TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, SKIRTING GUAM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.