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JTWC 11Z評級提升至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 113.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 113.9E, APPROXIMATELY
425NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD TURNING WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE. A 080958Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING TRYING TO WRAP INTO THE
EXPOSED LLC WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KTS) AND CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28-29C. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BUT DIFFER ON IF THE OVERALL BROAD CIRCULATION WILL CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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