(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.4N 118.6E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD
LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH. A 032003Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP BUT SMALL POCKETS OF CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN TWO POSSIBLE TRACKS FOR
THIS SYSTEM. MOST MODELS FAVOR A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE INVEST 96W MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST, ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, AND INTENSIFYING ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE PHILIPPINES BEFORE CONTINUING ON A EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
