(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 150.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 148.0E, APPROXIMATELY 305
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 141150Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER, SEVERAL POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE
PERIPHERY, AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDS BEGINNING TO FORM. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH CONSOLIDATION LIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0N
150.5E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140346Z AMSR2 89 GHZ
PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE
TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH CONSOLIDATION
LIKELY SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 46 AND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
