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95L 中心登陸

簽到天數: 459 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2018-9-11 01:21 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-9-15 09:25 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :95 L
擾動編號日期:2018 09 11 01
撤編日期  :2018 09 00 00
95L.INVEST.25kts-1009mb-18.5N-86.0W

20180910.1800.goes15.x.vis1km_high.95LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-185N-860W.100pc.jpg

NHC : 30%
1. Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some
signs of organization.  This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited
development.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico.  Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

two_atl_2d1 (1).png

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2018擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 459 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-9-12 03:08 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望提升至50%,進入墨灣發展。
1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean
Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better
organized. Ship reports indicate that this system is producing
strong gusty winds over the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance
moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. If necessary, an Air Force
Reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue
over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
two_atl_2d1 (2).png 20180911.1239.f17.ir.olsircomp.95L.INVEST.x.jpg

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簽到天數: 459 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-9-13 03:32 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望提升至70%。
1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure has formed in the central Gulf of Mexico.
Although the shower activity is still disorganized, upper-level
winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and
it is likely that a tropical depression will form on Thursday,
before the system reaches the western Gulf coast.  Another
reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
tomorrow. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
Louisiana late this week, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

two_atl_2d1 (3).png al952018.20180912184928.gif 20180912.1800.goes15.x.vis1km_high.95LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-235N-915W.100pc.jpg

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簽到天數: 459 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-9-15 02:55 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望降低至10%,即將登陸,不看好發展。
1. Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an
elongated low pressure area located near the coasts of Texas and
northeastern Mexico.  While development into a tropical depression
is not expected since the system is almost onshore, heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are likely across portions of northeastern Mexico
and Texas through Saturday. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
two_atl_2d1 (4).png 20180914.0916.f15.goes-15.ir.95L.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.26N.96.2W.065pc.jpg

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