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熱帶低壓第1號(01S) 南半球新風季首旋 無緣命名

簽到天數: 459 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2018-9-13 07:39 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶低壓  
編號:01-20182019 ( 01 S )
名稱:

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2018 09 13 07
JTWC升格日期:2018 09 15 08
撤編日期  :2018 09 17 20
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速:
法國氣象局 ( MFR ):30 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):45 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓:993 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
90S.INVEST.15kts-1007mb-5.6S-75.0E

20180912.2300.himawari-8.ir.90S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.5.6S.75E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2018擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 459 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-9-14 10:46 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 20Z評級Low,00Z 評級再提升至Medium。
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6S
75.5E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTARY, FORMATIVE BANDING.
A 130432Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 20- TO 25-KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ADEQUATE OUTFLOW AND MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KTS) VWS WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES NORTH OF THE CENTER. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL, WITH 90S ABOVE 26-28C WATERS BUT
JUST NORTH OF THE 26C ISOTHERM. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
WEAK CIRCULATION PROPAGATING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATING IN
THE MID-TAUS, WITH NAVGEM DISSENTING AND SHOWING A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TRACKING TO THE AFRICAN COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
79_93664_64abe56bdb53978.jpg


(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.6S 75.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 74.5E, APPROXIMATELY 150
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 132302Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED LLCC, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER AND A SINGLE LINE OF CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO IT. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED, WITH A BETTER
DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO TRACKED
FURTHER SOUTH, DEEPER INTO A REGION OF LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER, SSTS ARE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH THE SYSTEMS CENTER
RESIDING ON THE 26C ISOTHERM. GLOBAL MODELS KEEP 90S AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, WITH THE
ECMWF DISSENTING. TH ECMWF SOLUTIONS FAVORS A VERY SMALL CLOSED
CIRCULATION TRACKING FURTHER SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
abpwsair (2).jpg 20180914.0056.f18.ir.olsircomp.90S.INVEST.x.jpg


點評

上下高壓場區+低水溫.初步動向走西南西.駛流場資料也不是很好阿.  發表於 2018-9-14 11:15
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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2018-9-14 15:06 | 顯示全部樓層
南半球年度首個熱帶系統:熱帶擾動1號
SWI$01_20182019.png

點評

進一步發展難度不小,僅上看30kts  發表於 2018-9-14 22:38
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簽到天數: 459 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-9-15 02:48 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 09Z發布TCFA
WTXS21 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 74.3E TO 11.5S 68.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3S 74.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 74.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 74.1E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 140411Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEPENED CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A
LIMITING FACTOR AS THE SYSTEM RESIDES ON THE 26C ISOTHERM. DYNAMIC
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 90S AS A WEAK, COMPACT DISTURBANCE WITH A
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, WITH GFS AND ECMWF
PREDICTING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150900Z.
//
NNNN
sh902019.20180914080706.gif 90S_140900sair.jpg 20180914.1730.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.90SINVEST.30kts-1000mb-96S-735E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-9-15 10:13 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 00Z率先升格熱帶風暴01S,南印首旋。
20180915.0100.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.01SONE.35kts-1007mb-99S-721E.100pc.jpg 20180915.0100.msg1.ir.BD.01SONE.35kts-1007mb.jpg

點評

好厲害.走真遠.駛流場圖面不利+28度水溫走向27度水溫.竟然還沒瓦解. 誰能解說一下.它為什麼能走這樣遠?  發表於 2018-9-15 15:39
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-9-15 22:03 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR 升格熱帶低壓,不過不看好命名。
WTIO31 FMEE 151224
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/1/20182019
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 1
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/09/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.8 S / 70.0 E
(DIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: SE: 110 SO: 40 NO:
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 16/09/2018 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
24H: 16/09/2018 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
36H: 17/09/2018 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
48H: 17/09/2018 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
60H: 18/09/2018 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
72H: 18/09/2018 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
FT=CI=2.5
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME EVOLUE VERS UNE CONFIGURATION
EN BANDE INCURVEE. LA CONVECTION PROFONDE RESTE FLUCTUANTE AU COURS
DES DERNIERES 6HEURES ET LAISSE SUPPOSER UNE GENE DU A L'AIR SEC ALORS
QUE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES EST BIEN DEFINIE. SUR LES DERNIERS
INSTANTS, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE REPREND UN PEU PLUS DE VIGUEUR.
LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUESTSUD-OUEST
A UNE VITESSE CONSTANT DE L'ORDRE DE 15KM, PORTE SUR LA FACE
NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES JUSQU'A LA FIN DU WEEK-END. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE SYSTEME VA PRENDRE UNE ORIENTATION PLUS OUEST-NORDOUEST,
EN ACCELERANT LEGEREMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE PRIS DANS LE FLUX DE
BASSES COUCHES.
L'ENVIRONNEMENT SYNOPTIQUE RESTE MARGINALEMENT FAVORABLE AU
DEVELOPPEMENT POUR MOINS DE 24H. AVEC UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUTOT SEC
DANS LA PARTIE EXTERNE DE LA CIRCULATION DANS LES SECTEURS OUEST ET
NORD, ET UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR NORD QUI SE MET EN PLACE,
LE SYSTEME VA AVOIR DU MAL A MAINTENIR UNE INTENSIFICATION MODESTE
PENDANT PLUS DE 24H. COMPTE TENU DE LA BONNE DEFINITION DE LA
CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES, ON NE PEUT TOUTEFOIS PAS EXCLURE LA
POSSIBILITE D'UNE INTENSIFICATION UN PEU PLUS POUSSEE, LAISSANT TOUTEFOIS
LE SYSTEME AU SEUIL DE DEPRESSION TROPICALE. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE TROUVER DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS SEC
EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT OMNI-PRESENT ET EVOLUER
SUR DES EAUX A CONTENU ENERGETIQUE INSUFFISANT (AU SUD DE 12S). CELA
DEVRAIT CONDUIRE AU COMBLEMENT GRADUEL DU SYSTEME.
L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE NECESSITE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS
REGULIERS. PROCHAIN BULLETIN DEMAIN A 06 UTC.
SWI_20182019 (1).png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-9-17 22:25 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 00Z已發FW
sh012019.20180917124120.gif

MFR 06Z降格熱帶擾動
SWI_20182019.png

Wc16mdYsxZnjf.png

FyMFRtaOV1DMT.jpg
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