WTIO22 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 93.2E TO 13.0N 88.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 92.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N
101.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 93.0E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST
OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BROAD
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. A 091926 AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ AND
36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC
ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM. 90W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF
28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 90W WILL TRACK WEST AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110300Z.//
NNNN
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 101.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 100.7E, APPROXIMATELY
330 NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 072349Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD LLC. A 071449Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALED 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS WITH MAX WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS SITTING IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WITH
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY IN 36-60 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST INTO THE
BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
