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01W JMA:GW 遠洋低緯西行 於菲中群島滯留飄移

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-1-20 10:40 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-1-20 10:44 編輯

JMA 發布〔W〕
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 08.7N 128.6E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WNW 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
201901201020.png rgb-animated (1).gif

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +5 收起 理由
t02436 + 5

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

周子堯@FB|2019-1-19 18:52 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2019-1-20 08:47 編輯

一波三折的TD-01W(90W),稍微整理一下XD
距強冷空氣到達倒數54hr...@@
JTWC 0103 01Z 編號90W
JTWC 0103 03Z 評級Low
JTWC 0103 05Z 評級Medium
JTWC 0104 05Z 發布TCFA
JTWC 0104 18Z 編號TD-01W
JTWC 0106 15Z 發布Final warning
JTWC 0107 11Z 降評Medium
JMA  0110 18Z 判定LPA
JTWC 0110 20Z 降評Low
JMA  0111 12Z 撤除LPA
JTWC 0112 05Z 評級Medium
JMA  0114 06Z 判定LPA
JMA  0116 00Z 撤除LPA
JMA  0116 06Z 判定LPA
JTWC 0118 07Z 發布TCFA
JTWC 0119 07Z 降評Medium
JMA  0119 06Z 升格T.D
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ea_8.png
vis_lalo-animated-90W-01W-8.gif

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +5 收起 理由
t02436 + 5

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-1-19 16:58 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 升格為熱帶低壓
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 07N 132E WNW 10 KT.
19011915.png

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JMA升格TD,JTWC降評Medium......@@  發表於 2019-1-19 18:12
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2019-1-19 15:19 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC於01190700Z再度取消TCFA,並降評為Medium。
WTPN21 PGTW 190700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION (RMNTS 01W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180651Z JAN 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
180700)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 180700). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (RMNTS 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 138.3E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 6.6N 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 390NM EAST OF DAVAO CITY,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
190011Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY MODERATE (10-20KTS) AND INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY NOT
CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, INSTEAD REMAINING A LOOSE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIVEN BY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

abpwsair.jpg 20190119.0630.hm8.x.vis1km.01WONE.20kts-1005mb-66N-1321E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2019-1-18 15:16 | 顯示全部樓層
最後警報發佈近12天後,再次發佈TCFA。
wp0119.gif
WTPN21 PGTW 180700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2N 139.8E TO 8.1N 128.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.5N 138.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.6N 138.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 229
NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATON CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. A 180206Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED LLCC. A 180033Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS NUMEROUS 15-
20 KNOT WINDS WITH ISOLATED 20-25 KNOT WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20KT) VWS AND STRONG DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED
WESTWARD TRACK AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER
MINDANAO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190700Z.//
NNNN
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2019-1-15 09:32 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-1-15 09:36 編輯

JTWC15/00Z再升Medium
  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4N 155.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 153.5E, APPROXIMATELY 170
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 142321Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT WEAK, SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.

abpwsairs.jpg vis02-lalo.gif

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2019-1-14 15:02 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-1-14 16:57 編輯

第二度被降評為Low
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 159.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 155.9E, APPROXIMATELY 115
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 140448Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION WITH AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

vis0-lalo.gif abpwsair.jpg


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2019-1-14 14:23 | 顯示全部樓層
擷取.PNG 01W_tracks_latest.png

依然維持廣泛低壓帶
預計朝菲律賓東南方海域前進
過幾天後有進一步發展的趨勢~
持續觀察囉!~
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