霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z再次評級Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 159.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 158.2E, APPROXIMATELY 84
NM SOUTH OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) COVERED BY A LARGE
AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS),
AND STRONG POLEWARD AND WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD WITH CONSISTENT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

ben811018

緯度很低，發展不易
前方還有副高壓擋著
一路壓到菲律賓QQ~

zjk369

JMA再次編號擾動 而JTWC降格LOW

Meow

JTWC不承認自己幹過的，形成延後到7日開始，6日以前的01W不存在。

WP, 01, 2019010700,   , BEST,   0,  27N, 1741E,  20, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,  215,  50,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,        ONE,  ,
WP, 01, 2019010706,   , BEST,   0,  28N, 1735E,  20, 1005, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,  215,  50,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,        ONE, S,
WP, 01, 2019010712,   , BEST,   0,  29N, 1729E,  20, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  140,  50,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,        ONE, S,
WP, 01, 2019010718,   , BEST,   0,  31N, 1722E,  20, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  130,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,        ONE, S,
WP, 01, 2019010800,   , BEST,   0,  34N, 1717E,  20, 1007, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  130,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,        ONE, S,

周子堯@FB

JTWC 12Z降評為"Medium。
後續是否發展?數值看法兩極

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 01W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
5.6N 172.8E, APPROXIMATELY 123 NM SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED, FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 070619Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
SOME BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. 01W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HIGH
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) OFFSET BY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 01W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT, REMAINING
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

jrchang5

JTWC於0615Z發出Final Warning。後續會逐漸消散抑或再重新發展，仍有待繼續觀察。

WTPN32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 5.6N 173.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 150 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 5.6N 173.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 5.8N 172.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 6.2N 171.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 5.7N 173.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED CONVECTION WITHOUT A DISCERNIBLE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE USING THE EIR IMAGERY AND A 061009Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWED TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT
POSITION AND A BROAD AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AND A PGTW DVORAK FIX THAT IS TOO WEAK
TO ASSIGN AN INTENSITY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP IN THE
36-48 HOUR TIMEFRAME. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK
CIRCULATION WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT WITH HWRF SHOWING NO INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE COAMPS-GFS AND
COAMPS-NAVGEM SHOW A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING, POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS THE 36-48 HOUR TIMEFRAME. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN

jrchang5

JTWC於0418Z升格為TD01W。

WTPN32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040521ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 4.8N 174.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 4.8N 174.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 5.3N 173.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 6.0N 173.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 6.5N 172.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 7.1N 171.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 8.8N 167.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 10.3N 161.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 11.6N 154.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 4.9N 174.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO, MARSHALL ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND
052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 040530).//
NNNN

周子堯@FB

JTWC 09Z分析已達T1.5，周圍現有低風切，中心對流報發。
GFS預估有機會在24hr內成颱，並預測巔峰達中颱以上規模。

TPPN10 PGTW 040923

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SE OF KWAJALEIN)

B. 04/0900Z

C. 4.44N

D. 174.05E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   MARTIN