霧峰追風者

  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：14-20182019 ( 24 S )
名稱：Kenneth

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 04 月 21 日 05 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 04 月 23 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 04 月 23 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 04 月 28 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：莫三比克

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
法國留尼旺氣象局 ( MFR )：115 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：125 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：934 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
91S.INVEST.15kts-1008mp-9.0S-58.0E


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

蜜露

紀錄以來，史上登陸非洲最強的氣旋肯尼斯，已經登陸了莫三比克（強烈颱風等級）
氣旋肯尼斯登陸了莫三比克奎林巴斯國家公園、彭巴附近


目前造成有６人死亡。


















不過這次登陸人口較少，跟前一個氣旋伊代登陸地方距離也很遠。

霧峰追風者

中心登陸，JTWC18Z發出FW。

WTXS31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 012   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 40.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 40.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 12.5S 39.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 12.8S 38.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 13.0S 38.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 39.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRASTIC WEAKENING, WARMING, AND
SHRINKING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OF TC 24S. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON TURNING IN THE EIR LOOP, WHICH IS
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND A 251557Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS A SMALL BALL OF REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OVER LAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 75 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAPID DISSOLUTION OF
CONVECTION AND STRUCTURE OVER LAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH MODERATE BUT WEAKENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, LAND
INTERACTION WILL DOMINATE AND QUICKLY WEAKEN TC 24S. TC 24S IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTH THROUGH TAU
24. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST TO ERODE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWARD DRIFT WHILE STILL OVER LAND. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THAT TIME, AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN WALKING TOWARDS THE WEST, FAVORING THE
REMNANTS OF TC 24S STAYING OVER LAND FOR LONGER. OVERALL, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AFTER TAU 24
AS REFLECTED IN THE LARGE SPREAD OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MFR 判定為陸上低壓，逐漸減弱。

WTIO31 FMEE 260030
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/14/20182019
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 14 (EX-KENNETH)
2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 39.6 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 40
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
24H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
36H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LE CENTRE DE EX-KENNETH EST A PRESENT ESTIME A PRES DE 110KM A
L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES MOZAMBICAINES. IL VA POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS REALISER UNE LARGE BOUCLE. PAR LA SUITE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU MINIMUM RESIDUEL SUR TERRE RESTE INCERTAINE. SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI SE MET EN PLACE SUR
L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, IL POURRAIT REMONTER VERS LE NORD AVANT UN
HYPOTHETIQUE RETOUR SUR MER EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.
BIEN QUE LES VENTS VONT CONTINUER A FAIBLIR SIGNIFICATIVEMENT, LES
RESTES DE LA CIRCULATION EX-KENNETH POURRAIENT PERSISTER PLUSIEURS
JOURS SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE. LES FORTES PLUIES ASSOCIEES A EX-KENNETH VONT
CONTINUER ET RISQUENT D'OCCASIONNER DES INONDATIONS SUR LE
MOZAMBIQUE.

Meow

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 019-04-25_0745Z.jpg

jrchang5

MFR判定25/06Z T=CI=6.5+，近中心最大風速升至115kts，中心氣壓934hpa，強度已近巔峰。

ZCZC 149
WTIO30 FMEE 250629
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/14/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH)
2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7 S / 41.8 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 2.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 934 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 115 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/26 06 UTC: 12.3 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/26 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/27 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5+
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING KENNETH'S PINHOLE EYE
HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL, THUS INCREASING FURTHER THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A 3-HRS MEAN OF
THE LAST DVORAK ANALYSIS, BUT SOME IMAGES HAVE TEMPORARILY REACHED A
7.0 T-NUMBER. THE 0201Z AND 0105Z MW 89GHZ SSMIS IMAGES SHOW A VERY
COMPACT AND SOLID INNER-CORE. HOWEVER, AN OUTER BAND OF CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WHICH, COMBINED
WITH THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 12HRS, SUGGEST
THAT KENNETH IS GOING THROUGH THE FIRST STAGE OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC).
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST, KENNETH MAINTAINS A
GENERAL WES-SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING
LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON THE CURRENT TRACK, A LANDFALL
ON THE NORTH MOZAMBICAN COAST IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON
OR IN THE EARLY EVENING (MOZAMBIQUE'S TIME), 100 TO 150KM NORTH OF
PEMBA.
IN THE MEDIUM TERM, THE TRACK OF THE RESIDUAL OVERLAND LOW IS
UNCERTAIN. IT COULD TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN MOZAMBICAN TERRITORIES
BEFORE COMING BACK OVER SEA SOMETIME IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SCENARIO REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AS OF YET AND HAS THUS NOT BEEN
DISPLAYED IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
GIVEN THE RECENT TREND, KENNETH HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOURS. THE VERY LAST IR IMAGES SHOW THE
BEGINNING OF A DEGRADATION OF THE SAT PRESENTATION, PROBABLY LINKED
TO THE ERC. KENNETH'S INTENSITY IS THUS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
BEFORE LANDFALL, WHILE REMAINING OVER 100KT. THE RADIUS OF
DESCTRUCTIVE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, WHICH
SHOULD WIDEN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM DANGER, BOTH IN TERMS OF STRONG
WINDS AND OF MARINE STORM SURGE.
KENNETH IS THEREFORE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL
SEVERELY IMPACT THE REGIONS NORTH OF PEMBA. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
GENERATE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WHEN LANDING ON THE
MOZAMBICAN COASTS, WHICH CAN REACH BETWEEN 3 AND 5M IN SOME AREAS
SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL, TO WHICH MUST BE ADDED THE WAVE AND CYCLONIC
SWELL RUN-UP AND THE PHENOMENON OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH CAN CAUSE
FLOODING IN MOZAMBIQUE.=
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

霧峰追風者 發表於 2019-4-25 15:06
分析出T7.0，強度略微提升至125kts。
TXXS23 KNES 250612
TCSSIO

其實SSD分析出的FT是6.5,DT才是7.0
TXXS23 KNES 250612
TCSSIO
A.  24S (KENNETH)
B.  25/0530Z
C.  11.6S
D.  41.8E
E.  ONE/MET-8
F.  T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR
H.  REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS E#=6.0
AND +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT AT 25/0530Z. MET=5.5 PT=6.0. FT OF 6.5 IS BASED
ON 6 HR AVERAGING.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...VELASCO

WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS E#=6.0
AND +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT AT 25/0530Z.這句描述的是DT7.0
而MET=5.5 PT=6.0. FT OF 6.5 IS BASED ON 6 HR AVERAGING.
意指MET=5.5 PT=6.0.所以最後綜合分析出來的過去6小時FT值為6.5

另外附上JTWC的報文
TPXS11 PGTW 250613
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH)
B. 25/0545Z
C. 11.66S
D. 41.81E
E. ONE/MET8
F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN

霧峰追風者

分析出DT7.0，強度略微提升至125kts。
TXXS23 KNES 250612
TCSSIO
A.  24S (KENNETH)
B.  25/0530Z
C.  11.6S
D.  41.8E
E.  ONE/MET-8
F.  T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR
H.  REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS E#=6.0
AND +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT AT 25/0530Z. MET=5.5 PT=6.0. FT OF 6.5 IS BASED
ON 6 HR AVERAGING.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...VELASCO

24S KENNETH 190425 0600 11.7S 41.8E SHEM 125 937

jrchang5

MFR 25/00Z升格為強烈熱帶氣旋，近中心最大風速達105kts，中心氣壓950hpa。

ZCZC 211
WTIO30 FMEE 250057 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/14/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH)
2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4 S / 42.7 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+
NNNN

JTWC亦判定同一時間近中心最大風速升至115kts，中心氣壓937hpa，已達辛普森颶風等級的C4。

24S KENNETH
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 25, 2019:

Location: 11.3°S 42.7°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 mb

WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 009   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z --- NEAR 11.3S 42.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 42.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 11.6S 41.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 11.8S 40.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 12.2S 39.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 12.7S 39.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 42.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
NORTHWEST OF COMOROS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PERSISTENT PINHOLE EYE AND STRONG
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS BASED ON THE 242345Z AUTOMATED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KTS), IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FMEE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0, BUT BELOW THE PGTW AND
KNES ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS). A 242231Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 120
KTS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 250000Z OBSERVATION FROM HAHAYA INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT ON COMOROS ISLAND, 30 NM TO THE SOUTH, REPORTED A PEAK
SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 KTS AND LOWEST PRESSURE OF 998MB AT 242000Z.
THE 250000Z OBSERVATION HAS WEAKENED TO 26 KTS SUSTAINED WIND AND
1002MB. LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND WELL-DEFINED WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN
THE NEAR TERM. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 24S WILL TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC
24S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WEAKENS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS TC 24S DISSIPATING OVER LAND AFTER TAU 48.
HOWEVER, THE FLAT TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND CONTINUED LOW
VWS MAY ALLOW THE CIRCULATION TO REMAIN ORGANIZED OVER LAND. A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH AND CAUSE THE CURRENT
DOMINANT STEERING STR TO RE-ORIENT AND ALLOW ANOTHER STR TO BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW THAT MAY PUSH THE REMNANTS OF TC 24S BACK OVER WATER AROUND TAU
96-120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE
NEAR TERM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
GUIDANCE AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH SOME
MODELS LOOPING THEN RECURVING TC 24S TO THE NORTHEAST AND RE-
EMERGING OVER WATER, SOME MODELS MOVING TC 24S NORTHWARD BUT
REMAINING OVER LAND, AND UKMET AND GALWEM TURNING TC 24S TO THE
SOUTH BACK OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN