B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.1N
138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOROR. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WIDE SWATH OF FLARING,
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY WIND BURST.
RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATES 15 TO 20 KNOT CONVERGENT WESTERLIES WITH
MULTIPLE WEAK CIRCULATIONS SPINNING UP DUE TO THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY. A 011211Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS EXTENSIVE
FRAGMENTED BANDING AND AN ILL-DEFINED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH BROAD
DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A SLOWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH A NORTHWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
