本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-5-6 16:25 編輯
JTWC評價Low,並確認本系統為昨日的91W重編
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W: REPLACES INVEST 91W,
WHICH WAS CLOSED DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
2.6N 162.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.9N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
060435Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICT FAVORABLE LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
BROAD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
91W終報定位:91W INVEST 190505 1800 1.8N 160.1E
92W初報定位:92W INVEST 190506 0000 2.6N 161.5E
從數值預報圖上完全一模一樣的路徑,其實也可佐證昨日編號的91W與今日編號的92W確實就是同一個系統
只是想不明白為啥這隻需要重編,外洋的就先不說了,光是西太,去年底跟今年初很多擾動,對流不停消長,中心不停的換也沒這樣一天內直接重編的
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