老農民版夜神月

JTWC16/06Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0S
171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160234Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRICAL REGION OF FLARING
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETTING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO NEARLY
RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLY WARM (28-
30C) IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 95P WILL CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER, ECMWF SHOWS 95P BEING SHORT LIVED AND QUASI-
STATIONARY, WHILE ALL OTHERS PREDICT A STRAIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.