老農民版夜神月

  四級颶風  
編號：02 E
名稱：Barbara

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 06 月 29 日 00 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 06 月 30 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 07 月 09 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：135 kt
海平面最低氣壓 ：933 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
94E INVEST 190628 0600 12.0N 105.0W EPAC 15 1007

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the development of this system over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while the disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward well away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

前方環境惡劣，15Z已降TS，看來要以TS強度進中太越來越難。

947
WTPZ42 KNHC 051432
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
500 AM HST Fri Jul 05 2019

Strong southwesterly shear and marginal SSTs are causing Barbara to
continue to weaken.  The associated deep convection, which is
displaced to the northeast of the cyclone center, is diminishing in
both coverage and intensity.  Using a blend of Dvorak Current
Intensity and T-numbers from TAFB and SAB results in an advisory
intensity estimate of 60 kt.  Since the shear is expected to
increase further, continued weakening is likely and Barbara should
degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours or sooner.  The official
intensity forecast is near or above the latest model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 305/11 kt.  A low- to mid-level
ridge is forecast to build to the north of Barbara over the next
couple of days.  As a result, the cyclone should turn toward the
west-northwest and west during the next 24 to 48 hours.  The
official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and very
close to the simple and corrected model consensus tracks.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 18.4N 133.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  06/0000Z 18.8N 135.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  06/1200Z 19.2N 138.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  07/0000Z 19.3N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  07/1200Z 19.1N 144.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  08/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

老農民版夜神月

NHC0415Z,Barbara強度已被判定為三級颶風下限(100KT),強度有持續減弱的趨勢

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 041436
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
500 AM HST Thu Jul 04 2019

Satellite images indicate that Barbara continues to gradually
weaken. Convection in the eyewall is becoming less intense, with
eye temperatures slowly falling. A consensus of the latest
satellite estimates suggests 100 kt as the initial wind speed.
The hurricane is entering an environment that will likely promote
rapid weakening during the next couple of days. Barbara is forecast
to traverse sub-26C waters and encounter increasing southwesterly
shear, which would help to mix in drier air from the mid-levels of
the atmosphere. Thus, the cyclone should weaken to a tropical storm
by 36 hours and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone around
the time it enters the Central Pacific basin. The new NHC
prediction is similar to the previous one and is a bit lower than
the model consensus.

Barbara has turned northwestward recently, and is moving about
310/10 kt. This general path is forecast until tomorrow when a
mid-level ridge builds to north of the cyclone, causing a
west-northwestward motion. As Barbara weakens, it should
turn westward on Saturday, steered by the low-level flow. Model
guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and no
significant changes were required to the previous forecast. All of
the model dissipate the cyclone east of the Hawaiian Islands,
although the remnants could move across that area in about 5 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 16.0N 130.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 17.0N 131.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 18.1N 133.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 18.9N 135.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 19.2N 137.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 19.0N 143.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z 18.8N 150.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

蜜露

芭芭菈還有增強的趨勢，他的模樣很像西太的颱風。

眼溫達到了+21.2  加上環境不錯 未來極限強度可能會維持一陣子或剛好達到Cat.5

霧峰追風者

00Z強度來到四級颶風上限(135kts)。

t02436

15Z評價115節，巔峰上望130。

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021439
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
500 AM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

Conventional satellite imagery and microwave data reveal that the
structure of Barbara has improved significantly. The hurricane has
developed an eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection and
both features have been present during the past several hours.
This improvement in structure has been accompanied by a substantial
intensification, and based on both objective and subjective numbers
of 6.0 on the Dvorak scale, the initial intensity has been adjusted
upward to 115 kt. This is a marked increase of 55 kt since yesterday
at this time. A prevailing warm ocean and low shear could fuel
additional intensification during the next 12 hours or so. However,
the hurricane is forecast to encounter cooler waters and strong
shear primarily beyond 3 days resulting in weakening which could
be much faster by the end of the forecast period.  By the time
Barbara reaches the Central Pacific, it is likely to be a tropical
storm or even a remnant low.

Barbara has been moving steadily toward the west and west-northwest
or 290 degrees ar 12 kt. The hurricane is moving south of a
deep-layer ridge of high pressure extending from the west coast of
the United States westward across the Pacific. Barbara should move
a little more to the northwest around the ridge in about 2 or 3
days, but as soon as the cyclone weakens and becomes shallow, it
will likely move to the west steered by the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one, and it is basically
on top of the multi-model consensus.

NOTE:  Beginning this hurricane season, all National Hurricane
Center eastern Pacific advisory products that utilize local time,
and the corresponding graphical products, will use Hawaiian Standard
Time (HST) instead of Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) or Standard Time
(PST) if the final forecast point is west of 140W.  Since Barbara's
day 5 official forecast point is now west of 140W, advisory products
are now being issued in Hawaiian Standard Time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 12.5N 122.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 12.9N 123.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 13.7N 125.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  04/0000Z 14.6N 127.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  04/1200Z 15.5N 129.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  05/1200Z 17.8N 133.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  06/1200Z 19.0N 137.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 19.0N 143.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

霧峰追風者

風眼開啟，12Z強度直升四級颶風。

霧峰追風者

強度升"二級颶風"，巔峰上望120kts，穩定西行5天後將進入中太。

694
WTPZ42 KNHC 020234
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 01 2019

Passive microwave imagery over the past 6 hours indicates that the
inner-core convection of Barbara has continued to consolidate and a
ragged low- to mid-level eye has formed.  However, a pronounced dry
intrusion has periodically worked its way into the center of the
convective cloud mass, resulting in brief erosions of the eyewall.
Despite the dry air, bursts of deep convection have been developing
near the center and the most recent hi-resolution GOES-17 visible
satellite images suggest that a more robust eyewall is possibly
developing.  Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T4.5/77 kt
from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON values are T4.5/77
kt and 80 kt, respectively.  Given the occasional appearance of a
ragged cloud-filled eye in visible satellite imagery, the initial
intensity has been increased to 85 kt for this advisory, meaning
that Barbara has rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours.

Barbara's initial motion is 280/13 kt.  There remains no significant
change to the previous track forecast rationale.  Barbara should
turn toward the west-northwest shortly, and that general motion is
forecast to continue for the next 36-48 hours.  After that time, a
passing shortwave trough is expected to weaken the ridge to the
north of the hurricane, allowing Barbara to move more poleward. In
the 96-120 hour period, however, the ridge is forecast to build back
in, forcing Barbara back toward the west.  The new NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies
close to a blend of the TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE consensus models.

The combination of low vertical wind shear, an expanding upper-level
outflow regime, a moist mid-level environment, and SSTs greater than
28 deg C is expected to persist for at least the next 36 hours,
allowing Barbara to continue to rapidly strengthen during that time.
By 48 hours, however, steady weakening is expected to begin due to a
probable eyewall replacement cycle, the beginning of cold upwelling,
and increasing southwesterly wind shear.  On days 4 and 5, more
rapid weakening is forecast due to Barbara moving over sub-26 deg C
water temperatures and into vertical wind shear conditions of more
than 20 kt.  The new official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, and is a little above the consensus guidance
throughout the entire forecast period, closer to the Decay-SHIPS
model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 11.7N 119.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  02/1200Z 12.3N 121.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  03/0000Z 12.9N 124.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
36H  03/1200Z 13.6N 125.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
48H  04/0000Z 14.4N 127.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
72H  05/0000Z 16.4N 131.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  06/0000Z 18.0N 134.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 18.7N 139.6W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart