ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
24.8N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA,
JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A WEAK SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ILL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A 230012Z ASCAT-C
IMAGE SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH WEAK (10-20 KNOTS) CORE
WINDS AND A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT
180NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, TYPICAL OF A SUBTROPICAL TYPE
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER A SHARP 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
WHICH IS POSITIONED WITHIN A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT BUT VENTING EAST OF THE
LLCC WHICH IS FUELING THE DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. SST VALUES
OF 28-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 91W WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A WARM-CORE
TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD
TOWARD MAINLAND JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
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