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1912 楊柳 登陸越南 逐漸消散

簽到天數: 1765 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

zjk369|2019-8-27 14:33 | 顯示全部樓層
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Tropical Storm"Jenny"

Tropical Cyclone: WARNING


Issued at 02:00 pm, 27 August 2019


"JENNY" MAINTAINS IT STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS CENTRAL LUZON.
  • "JENNY" is forecasted to make landfall in Aurora tonight or tomorrow early morning.
  • Between this afternoon and tonight, intermittent to frequent moderate to heavy rains will be experienced over Bicol Region, Samar Provinces, Quezon, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Isabela and Cagayan. Light to moderate with intermittent heavy rains will affect Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon and Visayas, and the regions of Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, and Bangsamoro.
  • Between tonight and tomorrow (28 August) morning, intermittent to frequent moderate to heavy rains may be experienced over Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Rizal, northern portion of Quezon (including Polillo Island), Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, Pangasinan, and La Union. Light to moderate with intermittent heavy rains may affect Western Visayas and the rest of Luzon.
  • Between tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening, light to moderate with intermittent to occasional heavy rains may affect Western Visayas, Mindoro Provinces, northern portion of Palawan (including Calamian and Cuyo Islands), Zambales and Bataan.
  • Residents in the aforementioned areas, especially those living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to floods and rain-induced landslides, are advised to take precautionary measures, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates, especially the Thunderstorm Advisories and Heavy Rainfall Warnings to be issued by PAGASA Regional Services Divisions.
  • Areas under TCWS #2 are advised to take precautionary measures against potentially strong winds while occasional gusty conditions may occur over areas under TCWS #1. Occasional gusty conditions may also occur in Visayas and other areas of Luzon due to the Southwest Monsoon.
  • Sea travel remains risky over the seaboards of areas under TCWS due to potentially rough sea conditions.



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盡量不要只貼報文,可以附上自己的看法或心得,也可以增加文章品質,可以參考前面幾個的範例  發表於 2019-8-28 00:47
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ericlin6925|2019-8-27 16:26 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
看來這颱風和下個颱風應該都會進入南海,這個緯度較低,侵襲海南島及越南機率較高。下一個擾動應該緯度會比這個高一點,且強度可能較強,所以下一個對廣東港澳威脅較大,甚至不排除會影響南部和東南部天氣(但侵襲仍然機率不高),至於北部基本上今年風季結束機率已高達九成(東北季風共拌另類侵襲除外),看來我之前在利奇馬走後所言的已逐漸成真。

點評

下個颱風玲玲現在下判斷還太早,因為槽線東移通常要兩天前才能觀察到,所以等生成後才比較明確  發表於 2019-8-27 18:01
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簽到天數: 2103 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

Typhoon|2019-8-27 19:44 | 顯示全部樓層
目前各大預報模式對於準玲玲颱風的生成位置還有很大的差異看法
所以未來是否會影響台灣地區一切都還言之過早

點評

畢竟這裡是楊柳討論帖,如果要討論其他系統,可以到此討論帖討論 https://twtybbs.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=18856#lastpost  發表於 2019-8-28 00:54
玲玲假設真的生成,過呂宋後,副高正處東退趨勢,因此有轉向機率,但轉向幅度及強度仍有極大變數,還是等擾動真的生成再說吧~  發表於 2019-8-27 21:01
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簽到天數: 2243 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-8-27 23:51 | 顯示全部樓層
根據JMA15Z報,中心已登陸菲律賓呂宋島奧羅拉省,但PAGASA仍未發布消息。
1912-00.png

Tropical Storm"Jenny"

Tropical Cyclone: WARNING
Issued at 11:00 pm, 27 August 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 2:00 am tomorrow.)

"JENNY" IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN AURORA.

b13ca.png

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光下葛|2019-8-28 00:02 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
t02436 發表於 2019-8-27 23:51
根據JMA15Z報,中心已登陸菲律賓呂宋島奧羅拉省,但PAGASA仍未發布消息。



感覺很像今年的丹娜絲颱風一樣

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兩者的定位好像不一致吧  發表於 2019-8-28 00:23
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-8-28 09:17 | 顯示全部樓層
中心只花了約2~3小時就穿越呂宋島
Download_PTA_201908271800_PODUL_zhtw.png

20190827.2235.f17.91pct91h91v.13W.PODUL.35kts.1000mb.16.4N.121.3E.095pc.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-8-30 14:46 | 顯示全部樓層
昨天18Z登陸越南,JMA 06Z停編
熱帯低気圧
令和元年08月30日15時45分 発表

<30日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        タイ
中心位置        北緯 17度00分(17.0度)
東経 103度00分(103.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        996hPa

1912-00.png

20190830.0600.himawari-8.vis.13W.PODUL.25kts.1000mb.17.3N.105.4E.100pc.jpg

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