t02436

03Z報評價120節，站上C4，預報已更動為不登陸佛州，將近岸北上。

000
WTNT45 KNHC 310240
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

The cloud pattern of Dorian has become quite impressive in infrared
satellite imagery this evening.  The eye has become very distinct
and is surrounded by a very symmetric ring of deep convection. The
upper-level outflow has also improved.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft this evening has measured peak SFMR winds of 119 kt, and a
dropsonde dropped in the northeastern eyewall had mean winds in the
lowest 150 m that also supported winds of 118 kt, so the initial
wind speed has been raised to 120 kt.  The latest center drop
indicates a minimum pressure of around 948 mb, down 22 mb since this
afternoon. Since Dorian will be traversing SSTs of around 29C and
remain in a low shear environment, the current intensification phase
may not be over.  The NHC forecast is above the guidance and calls
for some additional strengthening in the short-term.  After that,
fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement
cycles that are difficult to predict.  Although some decrease in
wind speed could occur when Dorian slows down and causes some
upwelling, all indications are that Dorian will remain an extremely
powerful hurricane for the next several days.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at
9 kt.  The ridge to the north of Dorian is expected to build during
the next 24 hours, and this should cause Dorian's heading to bend
westward toward the northwestern Bahamas.  After 48 hours, the
global models show an erosion of the western portion of the ridge,
which is expected to cause the steering currents to collapse and the
hurricane to slow down considerably by day 3. Later in the period,
the models have again trended to a more significant weakness in the
ridge which allows Dorian to turn northwestward, then northward
near the east coast of Florida.  Although the deterministic
versions of the global models have trended northeastward again, the
GFS and UKMET ensemble means are farther to the left.  The
updated NHC track forecast has been nudged northeastward and lies
between the multi-model consensus aids and the aforementioned
ensemble means.  Although the official forecast track has been
nudged northeastward to near the east coast of Florida the risk of
significant impacts over much of the Florida peninsula remains high.


Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and
devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
Residents should execute their hurricane plan and listen to advice
given by local emergency officials.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are possible along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn
northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where
the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their
hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation
zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds, and rainfall is
possible in portions of Florida into next week, including the
possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the
Florida peninsula.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the
southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0300Z 25.5N  71.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  31/1200Z 25.9N  72.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
24H  01/0000Z 26.3N  74.5W  130 KT 150 MPH
36H  01/1200Z 26.6N  76.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
48H  02/0000Z 26.8N  77.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
72H  03/0000Z 27.0N  78.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
96H  04/0000Z 28.3N  80.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 30.8N  81.2W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

老農民版夜神月

NHC30/09Z一報定強已來到了C2,90節,後期預測路徑變化不大,將侵襲美國佛羅里達州,預測巔峰則再度上調為C4,120節

WTNT25 KNHC 300853
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 69.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 69.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 68.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.8N 70.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.1N 73.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 26.9N 80.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 28.1N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 69.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

]

老農民版夜神月

實測支持，NHC28/21Z報中升格Dorian為一級颶風，定強70節

WTNT45 KNHC 282044
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

The cloud pattern has become better organized with a hint of an eye
on high resolution satellite imagery and plenty of convective bands.
In addition, earlier data from a reconnaissance plane and surface
observations from St. Thomas as Dorian moved by yield an initial
intensity of 70 kt.  Now that the hurricane has developed an inner
core with a 15 to 20 n mi eye, strengthening is more likely. Given
the favorable environment of warm waters and low shear prevailing in
the western Atlantic, the NHC forecast calls for a marked
intensification, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity in 72
hours, and keeps it at that intensity until landfall. This
forecast is very close to the intensity consensus, the HCCA model,
and the SHIPS guidance.

Satellite and earlier reconnaissance plane fixes indicate that
Dorian has been moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 12
kt.  The cyclone is heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic
subtropical ridge, and this northwest motion should continue for the
next 24 to 48 hours. However, after that time, all the global models
continue to build a strong ridge over the western Atlantic, and this
flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more to the west-northwest
toward Florida. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend,
a powerful hurricane will be near or over the Florida peninsula. The
new NHC track forecast is a little bit to the south of the previous
one, given that global models have a stronger ridge to the north and
the track models show more of a westward motion.  Users are reminded
not to focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track
error is around 200 miles.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous winds will continue in the Virgin Islands, Culebra,
Vieques, and portions of Puerto Rico during the next few hours.
Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
could produce flash flooding through Thursday morning.

2. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later
this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it
is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents
in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place
and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.

3. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas,
Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this
week and into early next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 18.8N  65.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  29/0600Z 20.1N  66.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  29/1800Z 22.0N  68.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  30/0600Z 23.8N  69.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  30/1800Z 25.2N  71.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  31/1800Z 26.8N  75.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  01/1800Z 27.7N  79.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 28.2N  81.5W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

t02436

補個風場掃描


最新飛機實測測得63節強度，18Z報可能再調升強度

老農民版夜神月

就目前最新資訊顯示,Dorian於侵襲波多黎各時將不會登陸,後續受陸地影響而會略為減弱的預報同時遭調整.而後期接近美國佛羅里達州時的強度NHC於此報中上看C3,假如NHC此預報成真,Dorian將成為今年北大西洋首個MH

WTNT45 KNHC 281510 CCA
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 17...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Corrected day 5 intensity forecast in table.

Satellite and radar images indicate that the cloud pattern has
become better organized during the past several hours. This was
confirmed by data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane currently
investigating Dorian, which reported a flight-level wind of 72 kt
and a peak SFMR value of 60 kt. The estimated central pressure was
999 mb in the last fix. On this basis the initial intensity has
been adjusted upward to 60 kt. Only a slow strengthening is
anticipated today while Dorian is moving through the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands. However, once the cyclone reaches the
western Atlantic well east of the Bahamas, it will encounter a
favorable environment of low shear and warm waters, resulting in a
more marked intensification. The NHC foreast is more aggressive than
the previous one, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity by the
end of the period. This forecast very closely follows the intensity
consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance.

Fixes from the reconnaissance plane indicate that Dorian has been
moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is
heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and
this motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days. However, after
that time, all global models build a robust ridge over the western
Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more
to the west-northwest toward Florida and the southeast coast of the
United States. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a
powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of
the United States. The new NHC track forecast is not significantly
different from the previous one, and it very closely follows the
multi-model consensus TVCA and the HCCA. Users are reminded not to
focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error
is around 200 miles.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, Culebra, and Vieques today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Puerto Rico today with hurricane conditions possible.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next
couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of
the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern Untied
States later this week and into early next week.

3. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds is
increasing in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the
Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these
hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure that
they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact
forecast track of Dorian's center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

老農民版夜神月

Dorian將於明日通過波多黎各陸地,近48小時強度將受此影響而有略微的減弱,NHC預測巔峰將出現於美國東南外海,達70節,隨後將以一級颶風下限強度侵襲佛羅里達州

000
WTNT25 KNHC 280249
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 63.0W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 63.0W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 62.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.3N 68.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.1N 69.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.3N 72.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 27.4N 76.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.8N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 63.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

老農民版夜神月

NHC24/21Z升格TS,命名Dorian,巔峰暫時上望颶風75節

000
WTNT25 KNHC 242042
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 49.1W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 49.1W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 48.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.0N 50.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 11.4N 52.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.9N 54.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.7N 57.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 61.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 16.5N 65.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.4N 69.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 49.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

老農民版夜神月

NHC24/1500Z升格TD,預測路徑五天內穩定西轉西北的朝向西印度群島移動

000
WTNT25 KNHC 241440
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 47.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 47.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 47.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.7N 49.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.0N 51.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.4N 53.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.6N 59.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 15.2N 63.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 17.1N 66.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 47.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART