老農民版夜神月

  三級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：01 F ( 01 P )
名稱：Rita

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 11 月 21 日 22 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 11 月 24 日 00 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 11 月 24 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 11 月 30 日 02 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
斐濟氣象局 ( FMS )：65 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：65 kts ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓：983 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
90P INVEST 191121 1200 10.0S 170.0E SHEM 15 0


以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

JTWC於26/18Z發出最終報,27/00Z判定減弱為TD

01P RITA 191127 0000 15.2S 168.6E SHEM 30 1000

WTPS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 012   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 14.8S 168.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 168.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 15.4S 168.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 168.8E.
26NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177 NM
NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THIS EXPOSED LLCC. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0
(30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
TRANSITING AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS DRY AIR WRAPS
INTO THE SYSTEM WITH MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25KTS) AND VERY
MINIMAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. AS 01P TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHWEST IT WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 11 FEET.//
NNNN

jrchang5

FMS判定25/06Z再升為澳式C3。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Nov 250753 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RITA CENTRE 977HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3S
170.1E AT 250600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
TC RITA MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65
KNOTS INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 06 HOURS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A MODERATE DIFFLUENT REGION WITH LOW
WIND SHEAR. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS. RITA IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATE EYE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH LG SURROUND YIELDS A DT OF 4.5 MET AND
PT AGREE WITH DT. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDS T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 13.2S 170.3E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 13.9S 170.2E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 14.5S 170.0E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 14.9S 169.8E MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE RITA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 251400 UTC.

jrchang5

FMS判定25/00Z升格為澳式二級熱帶氣旋。

HURRICANE WARNING 014 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 250210 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RITA CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8 SOUTH 169.7
EAST AT 250000 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 11.8S 169.7E at 250000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS BY
250600UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 12.9S 170.1E AT 251200UTC AND NEAR 13.8S 170.2E AT
260000UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 013.

JTWC亦判定同一時間升C1。

WTPS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z --- NEAR 11.8S 169.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 169.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 12.8S 169.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 13.7S 169.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 14.3S 169.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 14.9S 169.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 15.4S 169.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 15.5S 168.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 169.7E.
25NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 13 NM CLOUD-
FILLED EYE IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 242150Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE 65 KT INITIAL
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS). GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. TC 01P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, INTERACTION WITH A STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY TURN TC 01P WESTWARD. DIMINISHED
OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VWS WILL HALT INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 12 AND
STEADY WEAKENING WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NAVGEM IS THE
SOLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTION SHOWING TC 01P GRADUALLY TURN
EASTWARD AFTER TAU 24. ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE AS SEVERAL MEMBERS
STALL THE SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS ACCELERATE IT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z
AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

FMS06Z命名Rita,巔峰上望澳式C2

FKPS01 NFFN 240814

TC ADVISORY

DTG: 20191124/0600Z

TCAC: NFFN

TC: RITA

ADVISORY NR: 01

OBS PSN: 24/0600Z S1024 E16824

CB: WI 80NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600

MOV: SLW

C: 998HPA

MAX WIND: 35KT

FCST PSN +6HR: 24/1200 S1048 E16842

FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 40KT

FCST PSN +12HR: 24/1800 S1124 E16854

FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 40KT

FCST PSN +18HR: 25/0000 S1200 E16912

FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 45KT

FCST PSN +24HR: 25/0600 S1230 E16924

FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 45KT

RMK: NIL

NXT MSG: 20191124/1300Z

老農民版夜神月

JTWC24/00Z升格01P,首報上望70節

WTPS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 10.2S 168.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 168.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 10.8S 168.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 11.9S 169.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 13.3S 169.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 14.3S 170.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 16.0S 171.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 17.0S 172.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 17.7S 173.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 168.3E.
24NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450
NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING UNDER DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). SUPPORTED BY A 232209Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
THAT SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, IS
FAVORABLE. TC 01P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL STEER TC 01P
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO DISTINCT
SCENARIOS ON THE TRACK OF TC 01P. NAVGEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL STALL AFTER ABOUT
TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NAVGEM AND ECMWF
SOLUTION. WITH THAT TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG VWS
AFTER TAU 48 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. IF TC 01P STALLS AS
DEPICTED BY THE OTHER MODELS, VWS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE AND
THE INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND TAU 48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
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jrchang5

FMS判定23/06Z升格為熱帶低壓，定強25kts。

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 230917 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F CENTRE 1002HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 167.6E
AT 230600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIWARI EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD01F SLOW MOVING.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Nov 231406 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F CENTRE 1002HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 168.0E
AT 231200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD01F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAUTICAL MILES
AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS.

TD01F HAS LLCC EXPOSED IN THE LAST 3 HOURS BUT CONVECTIVE BAND TO
NORTH HAS PERSISTED AND IS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. TD01F LIES UNDER
A MODERATE DIFFLUENT REGION WITH LOW WIND SHEAR. SST IS AROUND 30
DEGREE CELSIUS. TD01F IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTH ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARDS TRACK WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.2/0.3 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL WHICH YIELDS A
DT OF 2.0. MET AND PAT AGREE WITH DT. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDS
T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 10.2S 168.9E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 241200 UTC 11.5S 169.6E MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 250000 UTC 12.7S 170.0E MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 13.7S 170.1E MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 232000 UTC.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC23/0330Z發布TCFA

WTPS21 PGTW 230330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.6S 166.0E TO 9.8S 169.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7S 166.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1S
163.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 166.3E,  APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT BY A 22229Z METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT PROVIDES FOR MODERATE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DEVELOPMENT INTO WARNING STATUS IS LIKELY BY TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240330Z.//
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