WTPS21 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4S 172.1E TO 14.6S 178.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 152030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 172.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 170.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 172.4E, APPROXIMATELY
465 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS EXTENSIVE DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 151726Z 91GHZ COLORPCT IMAGE DEPICTS
FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151024Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS
INCREASING WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
FAVORABLE SST, HOWEVER VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM
TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162100Z.//
NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 140600
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 164.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 167.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140201Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 93P IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.8S 163.5E, APPROXIMATELY 407 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 121805Z 91GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE DEPICT BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 93P IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD BEFORE
EVENTUALLY TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 120928 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.0S
163.9E AT 120900 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8
IR IMAGERY.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SUPPOSED LLCC AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANISED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS
AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
