WTIO21 PGTW 011400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 71.2E TO 19.2N 69.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 71.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 71.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 71.1E, APPROXIMATELY 331
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION
PARTIALLY OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP HAS CONSOLIDATED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, AS IS EVIDENT BY THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE PRESENT IN
0105112 ASCAT-C DATA. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS
OFFSET BY WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93A WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021400Z.
//
NNNN
2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.4N 72.2E, APPROXIMATELY 241 NM WEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301400Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF FLARING
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 93A IS CURRENTLY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(<15 KNOTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 93A WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
