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2002 鸚鵡 南海發展 穩定西北行登陸廣東

簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-6-8 23:46 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC08/1330Z評級Low
ABPW10 PGTW 081330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/081330Z-090600ZJUN2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.0N 131.7E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080758Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATES A
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT EASTERLIES OVER THE NORTH
QUADRANT AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. INVEST 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD, CROSSES
LUZON, AND FURTHER INTENSIFIES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg 223359pu5qtajvt5atmcmt.jpg
98W_gefs_latest.png
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