ktf

曾文的入帳很難樂觀的起來,副高北跳後這個大氣配置和過去幾年有點相似
中國的內陸高壓不強,越赤道西風西南風都往中國內陸吹
副高吹到台灣的風向逐漸轉為東南到南南東風

這波過去以後又不知道要沉寂多久了

jwpk9899

CWB發布TD特報 並且不排除一旦升格颱風有改發颱風警報的可能

熱帶性低氣壓特報
發布時間：08/01 10:38
熱帶性低氣壓1004百帕，今(1)日上午8時在北緯20.1度，東經128.9度，即在鵝鑾鼻東南東方870公里的海面上，向西北移動，時速20公里，請在臺灣東南部、東北部及北部海面航行及作業船隻特別注意；一旦發展為颱風，本局有發布颱風警報之可能，請隨時注意本局發布之最新氣象資訊。明(2)日起臺灣附近各海面風浪將逐漸增大，基隆北海岸、西南部、恆春半島、東半部(含蘭嶼、綠島)沿海地區及澎湖、馬祖有長浪發生的機率，請注意。

周子堯@FB

92W JTWC 03Z升格為03W，後來居上，有機率搶先得命名辛樂克

pmy455091a

a為91W
b為92W

周子堯@FB

JMA 00z發布GW，所處位置輻散良好，有發展跡象，目前進度已經追上虛胖的91W了》_《

熱帯低気圧
令和02年08月01日10時30分 発表

<01日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 19度50分(19.8度)
東経 129度05分(129.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<01日21時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        沖縄の南
予報円の中心        北緯 20度40分(20.7度)
東経 126度50分(126.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<02日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        石垣島の南南東約290km
予報円の中心        北緯 22度00分(22.0度)
東経 125度25分(125.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        150km(80NM)

jrchang5

JTWC 31/2130Z發布TCFA。

WTPN22 PGTW 312130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311821Z JUL 20//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 311830)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1N 130.0E TO 22.7N 125.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.4N 129.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.6N 129.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 129.6E, APPROXIMATELY
465 NM SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING
BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE EAST. A 311709Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTH. A 311300Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS TIGHT
TROUGHING WITH A SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE.
92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
INTENSIFYING, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
012130Z.
4. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 311830) FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  112.0E//
NNNN

pmy455091a